Tuesday, 26 July 2011
Osborne and Sacred Cows
The UK growth figure for the last quarter of 0.02% is disappointing and despite his up beat explanation Osborne has a problem. How to promote growth in the private sector so that in another quarter or so's time UK growth is demonstrably stronger. Any cutting of red tape would help if done rapidly and extensively but would have to include cutting red tape imposed by the EU. Cutting EU red tape is presumably a no-no so that perhaps is the reason why Osborne has been hinting at tax cuts. I doubt that any tax cuts he might be thinking of would include VAT for two reasons (a) he has only just put them up and (b) that is the one cut Balls is calling for. By either good luck or design he has positioned the Labour party into asking for the VAT cut specifically and it should not be too much of a stretch for him to widen the argument to a general cut in taxation to which the Labour party can be shown to subscribe. Osborne should exclude bank bonuses from any reduction save where the bonuses relate to transactions which improve the bank's profitability. What is curious about the growth figures is that they fail to explain why the number of unemployed have been going down over the last few months. Is the number in employment a better indicator of how well the economy is doing rather than the growth figures? I do hope so for all our sakes but I also hope that Osborne can get on top of our borrowing which has continued to grow horribly. Cutting our borrowing would help growth. It would also help growth if rather than delay the cuts to the third and fourth years of the coalition the cuts are started immediately, even if it means the slaughter of some sacred cows.
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