Thursday 10 November 2011

Depressing Times

According to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard here Germany either has to leave the European Monetary Union (EMU) or agree to a reflationary policy in the eurozone. I do not think Germany will do either or if it does, only when it finds itself standing on the brink of its own downfall. As usual throughout the whole of this crisis the eurozone has done too little too late and imposed policies that will result in grinding poverty for years in those countries which should never have been in the euro in the first place. Bruno Waterfield argues here in one of the most depressing articles I've read in a long time that Germany will not leave the EMU as over 60% of its exports are to EU countries. Germany has certainly also used the 'credit fuelled market in southern Europe' generated by the euro in which to sell its goods to its advantage.  Waterfield maintains though that Germany is not the powerhouse we all imagine it to be and that it has hidden behind a credit bubble to avoid restructuring its economy. Waterfield is also convinced that the rivalry between France and Germany over who controls the eurozone and the EU is becoming a problem. Everything I read and hear screams at me that we have to leave the EU post haste in order to save ourselves from either being run by the French or the Germans. I know there are some who believe we might as well side with the Germans as we have been run by them since George 1 was invited to become our king but that misses the point that for many years prior to George 1 and subsequently our kings have only ruled us with our consent. If we do leave the EU we, like the rest of the world, would not escape the horrors awaiting us as a result of the inevitable messy collapse of the euro but at least we would have greater flexibility by being on our own than we have now subject as we are to suffocating EU regulation. I do hope the government is looking at exit scenarios even if exit is not their favoured course. It would be prudent to be prepared.

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