Strauss and the Phoenix

Having resigned as England Cricket Captain today there is talk of Strauss standing for the Tories in the upcoming by-election in Corby and there being support for him to do so amongst the locals. The betting apparently is 25/1 that Strauss gets selected as the Tory candidate and 16/1 that he will win the by-election. Not that good odds one has to say in what is currently a Tory seat, albeit a marginal one made more marginal by the present disappointment with the economy and thus the Coalition. It is not surprising that there is disappointment with the Coalition when the Deputy Prime Minister Mr Clegg decides to demand a wealth tax. Osborne has quietly and politely poured cold water on the whole idea but must have been cursing Clegg's stupidity in private. It is quite ludicrous to think that taxing the rich with a higher tax percentage is not going to send the wealthy away. Already the road to London from France is becoming more and more crowded as a direct result of Hollande's policy of taxing the wealthy at a 75% rate. It amazes that those who seek high taxation have never learnt from the past and it makes it absolutely necessary to repeat and keep repeating that the price of freedom is eternal vigilance or to adapt Eisenhower's famous saying the price of wealth is constant reminders of the damage high taxes cause. Osborne must continue to reduce taxes for all when the results will show that we are not a nation in decline yet again but a phoenix that is soaring. That should go down well with any campaign run by whoever is chosen as the Tory candidate in the Corby by-election.

NB I am away for the next 10 days.

Harry's 'Fun' Side

Did Prince Harry get it wrong by stripping off? Would he have done it if he knew he would be photographed if he did so? Were his minders lacking in common sense in not insisting all cameras and mobile 'phones were left outside his room - probably? Boys will be boys and no harm has been done by the third in line to the throne by showing his rear end and it is difficult to understand what all the fuss is about. There is one area though about which we should all be concerned and that is the effect of the Leveson enquiry on all the newspapers - that effect being to inhibit them from publishing the pictures despite the fact that many of us had seen them online. There was one exception, which was the Sun. I do not for one minute accept the reason they gave for publishing the photos, that there was a public interest issue involved, but I applaud the much needed two fingers they gave Leveson by doing so as well as their clear commercial reason. If Leveson's report suggests some kind of privacy law then it must be ignored. We really can't have the likes of Hugh Grant tell us what can and cannot be published anymore than we can have a politician do so. There are libel laws and the wealthy can take advantage of them. It seems Cameron does not believe anything was wrong in Harry being Harry anyway. A friend of mine's son was  staying near the Camerons in Cornwall over the weekend and on running into him asked what he thought about Harry and the photos. Cameron replied with a huge grin "No comment", which to me says it all. Cameron anyway has more serious matters to worry about than Harry's photos, the conflicted Yeo and Deben for one. They must be forced to resign from their climate change positions if they wish to continue as directors and shareholders of companies directly benefitting or likely to benefit from government subsidies. With the US and Germany using shale gas and coal respectively to keep their power stations going when wind produced electricity is unavailable (most of the time) we must do the same to ensure we are competitive. This is now an urgent issue and Cameron should seize the moment and get rid of the third rate Ed Davey in his reshuffle and replace him with someone who supports Lawson's views on the global warming subject.    

Shrinkage And Gas Filled Balloons

The last quarter's figures have been adjusted and we are now told the economy contracted by 0.5% rather than by 0.7%. There are naturally all number of calls for further Government spending to kick start the economy and take us out of recession with the BBC saying the deep cuts haven't worked. As any fule no, despite Osborne's statement when he came into office that he would impose spending cuts, there have been none - indeed the reverse has been the case with borrowing increasing considerably. In its attempt to mend the economy left in extreme danger by those geniuses Messrs Blair and Brown the Coalition had hoped to increase revenue through tax increases and so reduce debt that way. No hoped for increase in revenues has arrived thus proving the point made by the Laffer Curve. All the Chancellor can do now is to do what he said he was going to do to begin with. He must now cut even harder into the boil which has festered and grown bigger since he first took over its care. He should radically reduce taxes with some of the savings he makes using the balance to reduce the deficit faster and then begin to tackle the debt. At the same time Osborne must do everything he can to speed up the extraction of gas from our shale gas fields. The US has made significant cuts in its overseas gas dependency by aggressively extracting its shale gas and we can do the same. A side effect of using shale gas in the US has been to reduce carbon emissions which for those who are climate warmists must be an unexpected and pleasing bonus (though I doubt many warmists will be satisfied until we go back to candle power). Another beneficial effect, particularly if European countries exploit their own shale gas deposits, will be to curtail Russia's power by reducing its ability to manipulate its neighbours by cutting off their gas supplies from Russian fields as they have done in the past. There is an interesting post in The Commentator blog today about the likely effect of the exploitation of oil and gas fields in Russia's neighbouring countries and also of the fields discovered in the eastern Mediterranean by Cyprus and Israel which you can read here.       

Flooding The Market

George Friedman of Stratfor takes a view that others have promoted in whole or part that Germany set up the euro in large part to protect German creditors from its customer countries inflating their way out of debt. With this in mind Friedman goes on to propound that Merkel's actions are predictable because they will all be taken to ensure the euro continues to perform that function. Thus logically Germany cannot allow even Greece to leave the free trade zone. Friedman also believes that the euro crisis was caused by Germany flooding the eurozone market with its goods and by the imposition of regulations by the EU Germany had insisted on. Friedman goes on to say that Mrs Merkel knows that eventually Germany will have to agree to pay for the cost of the crisis but in the meantime she will do all she can to ensure that the new structure is suitable to Germany above all others. If this alone is not a reason for us to say goodbye to the EU it is certainly one of the weightiest ones. There is not time for us to try and beat Germany at this game as we do not currently have enough muscle nor at the end of the day would it profit us to do so even if it is always a pleasure to get the best of the Germans. Better by far that we concentrate on getting our finances sorted out and achieve the export and other rankings in the world that are rightfully ours or would be if we worked as hard at these issues as we did at winning medals at this year's Olympics. Despite what Friedman says I do not accept that Germany specifically set out to flood the EU market with its goods as to do so would inevitably lead to a reaction. The result though of Germany's action compounded by other idiocies going on in the world like the sub-prime market bubble and the dysfunctional euro led to the euro crisis that is likely to affect us all. This year is the  twentieth anniversary of our crashing out of the ERM which released us from the strait jacket ruining our economy. Leaving the euro will have the same affect on the economy of each country that does so  despite the initial pain they will suffer and whatever the eurocrats may say.    

A Pussy Bully Jails 3 Cats

Russia has never been a world leader save in barbarism and murder. It has an idea of itself as a great nation that remains unrecognised in the rest of the world, save of course amongst those who like ideologues and tyrants - no doubt like President Correa of Ecuador and Julian Assange. This is not to say that many of its people are anything other than friendly, intelligent, passionate and open minded. Until Russia embraces the rule of law concept though it will always have trials with outcomes like the one we have heard of today with three women pop singers imprisoned for two years for hooliganism for having sung an anti Putin song in a Church. Would these women have been charged with hooliganism if instead of Putin the subject of their song had been a  rebel Chetnyan leader? Most unlikely. I believe that most people in the UK would think it wrong to use a Church or other place of worship to make a political statement and I do not know the circumstances leading to the song having been performed in the Moscow Church but the imposition of a two year sentence is barbaric and can only have been done for one reason. To put the fear of God into others minded to protest against Putin. This is a further example of denial of free speech by this unfortunate Russian government. Critics, including journalists, of the regime or specific members of it have been murdered in the last few years not only in Russia itself but also outside; witness the fate of Mr Litvinenko in the UK despite the fact he had become a British citizen. Mr Putin and his followers believe that Russia is a special nation that deserves special respect. There can be little respect though for any country which behaves as it has done and any respect we gave it for having thrown off the Soviet yoke has been diminished as a result of this return to Soviet type behaviour. Putin thinks his bullying has succeeded against the Americans but this will change when Obama leaves office. No successor US President will continue Obama's Russian appeasement policy. Only weak men like Obama murder people like Osama bin Laden and give in to people like Putin. Strong men bring people like Osama bin Laden to trial and stand up to demagogues like Putin.                

Bastion Of Freedom Ecuador Style

Ecuador is a country which is best known for its Galapagos Islands although in pub quizzes the participants frequently give ownership to either Colombia or Peru. Like all South American countries Ecuador's politics are murky and involve coups d'etat from time to time. Its current leader is Rafael Correa who is an ally of the Iranian President Ahmadinejad and intends importing Iranian oil in defiance of the ban on Iranian oil set up by most countries in the western world. Ecuador tried to block  action against Gaddafi and is now trying to block action against Assad. Correa has a history of trying to imprison journalists who try to write things about him he finds offensive yet has decided today to grant Julian Assange asylum. Assange, a darling of the Guardian and the BBC, is the man who thinks he is above any law when it comes to obtaining and publishing secret US documents even though he believes his own secrets, including those relating to financial matters, are sacrosanct. One of the US secret or confidential documents he published was from Heather Hodges, the US Ambassador to Ecuador, in which she stated that Correa had appointed someone the position of police chief knowing that person was corrupt. This inevitably led to Hodges being expelled by Correa from Ecuador. With this history it is not surprising that Correa would grant Assange asylum since Correa clearly enjoys tweaking the tail of the United States and of its main ally the United Kingdom. The latter after all has had the audacity to allow one of its courts through proper legal process to decide to extradite Assange to Sweden to face investigation for alleged sex offences committed there. Furthermore the UK refuses to bow the knee to Correa's socialist friend Mrs Kirchner the leader of Argentina and her demand that the Falkland Islands be transferred to her country. Being of the left the ordinary rules of democracy and of due process do not of course apply to people like Assange and countries like Ecuador and Argentina. If there is a legal way in which we can storm the Ecuadoran embassy and pick up Assange then this should be done but if not we will just have to wait for him to stick his nose outside and arrest him. Fortunately the Ecuadoran embassy has no forecourt that would allow Assange to climb into a diplomatic car whilst on Ecuadoran territory. He has to cross the pavement outside the embassy first! It must not be forgotten that in entering the Ecuadoran embassy Assange broke the terms of his bail. How stupid of those like Ms Kahn to stand bail for a snake like Assange.

Enthusiasm Becomes Boris

Boris Johnson has given an interview to the Evening Standard in which he said the way to get business motoring in the UK is to cut taxes, cut regulation, create the infrastructure and get behind it (by which he presumably means that everything should be done to ensure that the new infrastructure is started without the usual delays and built as soon as possible). He also revealed plans for an elevated lanes for bicycles alongside the Overground tracks and was of the opinion Osborne was in favour of infrastructure projects like the Thames Estuary Airport but criticised inertia in the Government - a dig at the LibDems who have today come out against any new runway in the London area. Other infrastructure projects Boris wants undertaken include Crossrail 2, more river crossings and a massive house building programme. He also urged Cameron to stop pussyfooting around on the airport decision  (a reference to the delayed publication of the report into Britain's airports) and by which he presumably meant that Cameron should get on with things even if the LibDems object. The Evening Standard sadly failed to ask Boris what he would he do about Government spending and the deficit. If his proposals are for infrastructure projects to be paid for by the private sector then I agree with him 100% but if any significant taxpayer funding is required then he's barking up the wrong tree. It is also sad that he did not mention energy. We desperately need someone of his stature and vigour to take the argument about oil to the opposition. There are billions of untapped 'tight' oil reserves in the United States that due to new technology can now be extracted and which it is estimated will last for 200 years. There are similar sized reserves of tight oil in other parts of the world that are waiting to be extracted as well. All this will bring down the price of oil as the price of gas in the US has been brought down due to the extraction of shale gas. We could also enjoy a gas bonanza from our large shale gas fields in Lancashire. Let's get behind this and to hell with the bloody eco fascists who want to take us back to the dark ages.      

What An Irony

A few days ago Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote an article about what he calls the Great Recession and how it is turning into a life sentence. He believes the crisis started on 12th August 2007 when yields on 3 month US Treasury Bills crashed from 3.76% to 2.55% in two hours. This was the moment that investors became so scared that they came out of the money market and flooded into 3 month US Treasuries and thus dramatically bringing down the yield. He also believes that it was the Asian 'Savings Glut' that caused the credit bubble crisis. You can read his fascinating article here. Evans-Pritchard has written another fascinating article today about how Germany's shipping industry faces a number of bankruptcies as a result of a contraction in the container trade. 100 German ship funds are already bankrupt with a further 800 in difficulties. Germany apparently controls 40% of the world container shipping market but like the oldest British shipping company which has just gone into liquidation misjudged the shipping business cycle and over invested in new ships for the Chinese market. Vessel rates have fallen dramatically leaving a legacy of debt and a glut of ships. However as more and more ships find themselves on the market at knock down prices as a result of foreclosure or in order for their owners to pay off debt the best ones are being bought by guess who? The Greeks. You could not ask for a more intriguing result. It brings a smile to one's lips at the realisation that here is a way out for the Greeks from their horrific financial predicament. They could even afford to buy the ships if they were to pay for them in drachma! If the Greeks bought the ships in drachma they could then afford to undercut vessel rates to such an extent they would be able to take a greater percentage of the shipping market from the Germans. You can read the article here.     

Let The Phoenix Rise

There was much to admire about the Olympic Closing Ceremony but much that irritated too. It was too long and in parts self indulgent. It was a pity that in his first song George Michael sang flat. Did you guess who the hologram figure was? No neither did I. My daughter told me it was Freddie Mercury of Queen who died of aids. The words of Lennon's Imagine confirmed my view of the leftie bias of the show as did the words of one of Jessie J's songs but a lot of men could forgive her anything and her voice wasn't bad either. Whereas the words of these two songs were of a misguided philosophy the word Freedom in one song emblazoned around the stadium struck me as a deserved poke in the of those present from dictatorships and other autocrat run countries. The lighting and other visual and stage effects were brilliant and the extinguishment of the cauldron with the phoenix rising above were particularly moving. Did the phoenix represent this country or was it about something else? It should have been about the UK and in the context of the Games the incredible success of our athletes who in 1996 obtained 1 gold only. In all of this where were the Rolling Stones? They didn't feature in either the Opening or Closing Ceremonies or at the Diamond Jubilee and they are one of our greatest bands ever. Maybe I have missed the reason why but could it be because they will only perform for a fee? Charles Crawford has a good piece on the Closing Ceremony here and his reference to the EU is well made. John Mauldin whose Thoughts from the Frontline I subscribe to now believes that the euro crisis will lead to one of three disasters of equal significance. Either the euro will collapse or there will be some form of european union or the can will continue to be kicked down the road forever. I do not agree that these three disasters are of equal horror. You have to look at the one which will allow each country to heal itself again like the phoenix which means that the euro must be killed and each country go back to its own currency. It will certainly be painful but look at Iceland as the most recent example of how a bankrupt country can out itself back together again in only a remarkably short time. Three to five years.    

The UN Sees Some Sense

It is not often that the UN says or does anything worthy of praise. It has been at the forefront of the scandalous global warming scam through the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and thus it has come as a surprise that the UN is suggesting that the US gives up on using corn for biofuel and uses the corn for feed purposes instead. This request has been made because of the poor US corn crops this year as a result of the drought in the Midwest pushing up the price of corn by something like 34%. Is the beginning of realism in the climate change debate? Perhaps, but there is a long way to go. It is not that it is stupid to find other sources of energy that are more environmentally friendly but to lie about global warming and to pretend that wind farms are anything other than an expensive disaster that disfigure the land. Any politician that promotes wind power will eventually have egg all over his face including that darling of the BBC Alex Salmond who, according to Bishop Hill here, does not seem to understand maths. The BBC love wind farms and everything green so it was not a surprise this morning to be told by that great green giant Roger Harrabin on the Today programme this morning that the London Olympics have been the greenest Olympics to date but apparently they could have been even more green. Who cares? All we care about is that the Olympics have been a success in light of all the effort and treasure that has been put into it and as a Londoner as a result of the disruption to the town. We have not suffered the same disruption in the West of London as they have in the East but it was fascinating walking around Victoria Park this afternoon and seeing the display of 204 photographs of personalities from each country that is participating in the Games. It was also dispiriting to see a stand alongside the main path through the Park handing out free pamphlets and other blurb about the marvels of Islam. It is a free country though and the East End like the West End has increasing numbers of muslims living in our midst. Something we just have to get used to although we must ensure that the horrors of Sharia law are never accepted here. The Games have been a huge success and Charles Moore has written a brilliant article in the Telegraph today about how we should use this achievement, which you can read here.    

Let Them Eat Cake On A Bicycle

Do the French really think we cheated in the cycling events? Apparently 70% of those polled in France think so. Wonderful isn't it! How do we deal with this particular slight? Do we complain to the President of the EU, that bastion of fairness Mr Barroso, and ask him to intervene? I don't think so as he assuredly thinks the French are right and probably still believes in Descartes on the question of gravitational pull. He also no doubt thinks like all socialists that the sun shines out of Jean Jacques Rousseau's fundament. So no joy is likely to come from the EU. Should we complain to the head of the International Olympic Committee? Somehow I doubt the Committee will be much impressed being    an autocratic organisation that brooks no dissension - witness the way they have taken over London's roads, the prohibition against the use of the Olympic symbol without a licence, the fierceness with which they have defended their branding and so on. No, there will be no help there. But who needs help anyway? Certainly not the British who have stood on their own two feet for hundreds and hundreds of years. Apart from the little digs against the French, (a) from one member of the British cycling committee who in answer to a question posed by a member of the French cycling team about the legality of our equipment explained that the reason for our success was because our wheels were more perfectly round than theirs and, (b) from Cameron saying that British cycling success has driven the French so mad they are accusing us of cheating, we should cheerfully ignore the frogs. Let them eat cake, I say, and next time they want some help as they will when the euro collapses, as it will before the end of the year, let's put the cost of doing so the return of our ancient lands that they stole from us and if they wont agree let's leave the EU.    

French Post

Whilst in France over the weekend I read an article by one Alexandre Adler in Le Figaro. He made the same comments about the Olympics opening ceremony as I had made but in rather more detail and unlike me had come to the conclusion that it showed a country in decline. However when I think about it his view may be correct in the context of the NHS - the jury is still out whether the brave attempt by the Government to bring it screaming into the light of day will succeed or not. Adler lastly declared it was ridiculous for this country to want to reduce its involvement with the EU as we were needed to help out, presumably with the eurozone countries, and it was wrong of us to hold back. Either we're a 'decadent' country as Adler describes us and thus not worth knowing or we are a country that still has some positives and thus worth doing business with. He can't have it both ways and we cannot be criticised for staying out of the flawed euro project. Yes, we are in a hole and yes, our banks have become involved in illegal activities for which the perpetrators need to be prosecuted and if found guilty sent to prison. But no, our banks are not the only ones and it is frankly disgusting of the Americans to use what's happened to protect themselves from competition. The Americans like the French have always sought to protect their industries with harmful effects on world trade so we should not, I suppose, be surprised that they are playing the same old game. They are also trying to impose their foreign policy on us through the way they control our banks operating in the US. This can be a double edged sword since their foreign policy cannot be said to have been always successful nor to have avoided "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns" or unforeseen consequences whether foreseeable or not. In typical fashion the head of the New York State Department of Financial Services has made the most astonishing claims so it is will be a feast well worth watching when he is made to eat humble pie - always a difficult thing for a bragging American to do. I still don't get the point of including the NHS in the opening show and my view that it was inappropriate to include it has been strengthened by a case of nursing negligence in the Royal London hospital a day or so ago. A premature baby being cared for in the institution was mistakenly given milk expressed by another mother rather than the milk expressed by its own mother. The premature baby is now on antibiotics as the mother who expressed it is infected with thrush and candida. The mother of the premature baby has been asked if she will sue although she is under some pressure from the hospital not to do so. Despite the negligent nurse's apologies I think the mother should sue since it is quite unclear whether and what treatment the premature baby will require if she contracts either or both diseases. She may well have the whole of her life blighted by this negligence.      

Monti - A Lesson In Autocracy

It should not be surprising that Mario Monti, the unelected Prime Minister of Italy, stated that parliaments should be overridden in order that governments could introduce laws thought necessary by Ministers without interference from MPs. This is no doubt a view actively supported by many civil servants including those in the EU. It is certainly a view taken by many in our civil service and by certain politicians. Indeed it was a Labour MP, one Douglas Jay, who once infamously said "the man from Whitehall knows best". There are of course copious examples of where the man in Whitehall did not know best including the ERM fiasco and currently climate change. Hannan has an example of such democratic deficit in the EU here. Monti should resign immediately for his stupid anti democratic remark since if the EU is to survive it must restore (if it ever had it) its citizens' faith in its institutions through deeper democracy not less. This can only happen if the way EU citizens are ruled is changed to follow the Swiss democratic model whereby every time there is a law change the issue is put to a referendum. Without the introduction of such a system the EU must break up since even the Germans are now frustrated by its anti democratic ways as can be seen from Hannan's said post. Politicians have anyway sunk even lower in the minds of many of us for a variety of reasons one being as a result of the behaviour of the Lib Dems. Clegg was given the AV Referendum in exchange for supporting constituency boundary changes but because an unrelated piece of legislation is now not going to go ahead owing to a Tory back bench revolt he will not support the boundary changes. This is like the teacher who threatens to punish the whole class for the misdemeanours of one or two pupils. The electorate will remember this and vote accordingly. Cameron has quite rightly said he will push ahead with the boundary change vote. By doing so he has put Miliband in a bit of a spot. The current boundaries are demonstrably unfair and if Miliband decides the Labour party must vote against changing them he will be tarred with the unfairness brush but he does his party no favours for voting for the changes as to do so will have the effect of diminishing the number of safe Labour seats. Not by much it is true since PoliticalBetting here have calculated that even if the Tories are 2.2% ahead on votes they will still lose the next election. Will Miliband risk the Tories only being 2.2% ahead at the next election? The election is some way off and Miliband would have to be very brave to vote for boundary changes or so sure that he will win the next election come what may that he can afford to be seen to be in favour of fairness and generosity. I do not believe he will take the risk.    

French Sauce

Hollande was clearly stung when Cameron said we would roll out the red carpet for those French coming here to escape the new French socialist government's tax impositions. London already has over 400,000 French residents and is the fifth largest French town. Hollande couldn't wait to get his own back and duly did so when he was here to see his compatriots competing in the Games. With France third in the medal table he said he was grateful to the British for rolling out the red carpet for French athletes winning medals. Who will have the last laugh though, not on the medal front but on the more serious one, that of making a living without prohibitive taxes. All the betting is on France losing out. Hollande is reversing the retirement age back to 60, is imposing a 75% tax on high earners, is doubling the wealth tax (albeit for one year only), is imposing a tax on foreigners who own French properties and is introducing a financial transaction tax on companies headquartered in France. France is in a worse financial position than the UK and it is anticipated that data to be released in October will make it clear that Hollande's measures are making France's finances even worse. Not only are more French expected to come to work in London but that the headquarters of French companies will be moved here too. Cameron has welcomed the French arrivals, will Boris Johnson welcome them too? I'm sure he will as some of them will have voted for him in the Mayoral elections. With Cameron's star sinking and Boris's rising will we see the latter elected the new Tory leader in time for the election? Only if Cameron fails both to get his act together this summer and to come out fighting in September with Tory ideas that involve cuts on employment regulations, taxes, european red tape and government spending. In this regard it will be interesting to see what the forthcoming ministerial shuffle brings. Cameron has already made a start on cutting government staff but needs to be ruthless with the likes of Ed Davey who has increased the number of employees working for his department. Davey needs to be sacked and replaced by a climate change sceptic. On the other hand Cameron needs to support Francis Maude who wants to modernise the Civil Service and make it more accountable. This is a thoroughly good idea as it must be right that any civil servant who obstructs the implementation of a policy can be sacked.