Obama, Romney and Lord Black

The third debate between the presidential candidates was interesting but yet something of a disappointment. As anticipated it was hardly a debate with both candidates making statements and neither being allowed to take up points and discuss and develop them. Obama did not wipe the floor with Romney and indeed Romney came across as more Presidential. The reason for this I think was because Romney did not sink to the personal insult whereas Obama came very close to being petty at times. It seems to me that Obama is in danger of losing the election but who am I to say and for those who have yet to make up their minds about which way they will vote no doubt the campaigns will provide the decider. I felt Obama demeaned his office particularly when he boasted about killing Osama bin Laden. For me though it was a great disappointment that Romney said he would have given  the same order. Clearly the rule of law about which American politicians speak with such fervour is neither understood nor cherished as it is in these islands. Perhaps Conrad Black is right and that despite the origins of American law being English their laws and criminal system can do result in convictions that would never happen here. Black is the first person I have seen make Paxman blush when he defended himself against Paxman's claim that Black was a criminal. Black accused Paxman of not having done his homework and pointed out that at his appeal hearing he was exonerated from all save one charge which was on an issue peculiar to American law which is not a crime here. This charge related to an expenses payment of some $200,000 odd for which there had been board approval. The Appeal Court apparently criticised the judge of first instance. It is not unknown in the States for wrong judgements to be made in courts of first instance since decisions by elected judges are made for political reasons rather than on the facts of a case. I do not know whether that happened here but it would not surprise me. It seems that you always have to appeal decisions from courts of first instance. Apple may have been awarded huge damages in a recent case but it is most unlikely that the damages amount will be upheld on appeal and even the result. The fact remains Black was convicted but will undoubtedly continue with a campaign to clear his name.

Oddity

The world is really an odd place. New evidence turns up each day that confirms this statement. Two stories which particularly struck me this morning are the comment by Merkel that she'll cancel the EU summit next month if Britain refuses to do approve any increase in the EU Budget and the report of the result of a case in Italy where 6 scientists are to be imprisoned for 6 years for failing to give spot the coming and giving warnings of the Aquila earthquake. Until very recently I had dismissed stories about the German desire to rule the EU by use of its pre-eminent financial and industrial muscle as fanciful but now that it is clear Merkel thinks she can dictate whether or not an EU summit can be held I am no longer persuaded that the stories are untrue. If the EU is to be run as a German fiefdom for the greater good of the German economy rather than for the greater good of all europeans then that is reason alone for us to leave. Germany is not the repository of all wisdom as we know only too well in this country and so does the rest of Europe. The extraordinary Italian law that allows people to be fined and jailed for getting earthquake forecasts wrong is another reason for leaving the EU. Which Italian scientist will now be willing to offer any opinion at all on the strength and imminence of an earthquake for fear of being found guilty of underplaying what happens. How could scientists have known what numbers would be killed, what buildings would be destroyed or damaged or the exact position and extent of infrastructure failure. No one in their right mind would fail to pass on information that would save lives. If scientists are forced to express an opinion then they will veer on the side of excessive caution no doubt resulting nine times out of ten in unnecessary costs and inconvenience to the frustration of all. There are some things in this life which are wholly or largely unpredictable and no one can be blamed for what used to be called acts of God. What was not an act of God was the well documented (by economists at least 10 years ago) disaster the euro would turn put to be. The perpetrators of this appalling catastrophe are guilty as hell for having ruined the lives of thousands upon thousands of people and they not the scientists should be in prison. Even now the guilty ones want to make matters worse by continuing the euro folly. Furthermore the Germans do not wish their landesbanks to have to reveal the extent of their reckless purchases of both subprime and Greek debt. Their purchases would of course have to be brought into the light of day if the euro were to be abandoned. Other governments want to save the euro to cover up their criminal mistakes but as Iceland has shown that, despite the pain of devaluation, a country can grow again in short order if it devalues. No country can of course devalue unless it leaves the euro. Another remarkable story of a different kind came to light today - that of a seven year old girl who not only plays the piano and the violin quite beautifully but has written an opera and is in the process of writing a concerto. A genius? Her name is Alma Deutscher.  

The EU Has No Future

It is becoming more and more difficult to have any sympathy at all for Germany. They saw to it that the euro worked almost exclusively in their favour and to the detriment of almost everyone else by ensuring the interest rate applied in the eurozone was suitable for themselves and pretty much no one else. This enabled them to sell their goods to the eurozone periphery at deflated prices in euros rather than at the price they would have had to sell them at in Deutschmark. The Germans guessed the eurozone periphery countries would greedily ignore the reasons behind these windfall prices and borrow at German low interest rates to buy discounted German goods. These fake prices are the reason why there are so many German cars, white goods and even televisions here in the UK. They may cost less than they should but are they that good? In my experience they are not the ne plus ultra they are sold as being. Now the cat is out of the bag about their grand plan to dominate the european industrial market  you would think the Germans would offer to pick up their share of the cost but no such offer has been forthcoming. They have obligingly said though that they will agree to some sort of banking union with all the banks coming under the scrutiny of the ECB but only so long as the ECB does not get to supervise the smaller regional banks for whom responsibility will rest with their respective central banks. The reason for this is because Germany is paranoiac about the solvency detail of their smaller regional banks becoming known to the world. Their regional banks could well be insolvent in light of the sub-prime and Greek debt they bought before the crisis. If the state of Germany's smaller regional banks were to come to light Germany would be forced in to having to mount a huge rescue operation or see many of such banks go to the wall. So instead of being european minded ( a state of mind that has only ever lived in the arses of european hypocrites) Germany is behaving like every other nation and putting its own interest first. The EU myth was always a farce but has now become seriously bad for our health in its anti-democratic prejudice, rigidity, lack of competition, internal wrangling, corruption and excessive cost. The EU pretends to be something it is not, never has been and cannot be. As always I'm amazed by our decency and forbearance in politely not pointing this out. It has been wonderful for a lot of third rate bureaucrats and other nonentities like Barroso and van Rompuy who could never have made it in their own countries - alright Barroso and van Rompuy were Prime Ministers of their respective countries for a few months but this does not destroy my point, it strengthens it.  All the EU is is a group of countries in a certain part of the world that have a history of trading and fighting between them. Rather than just getting out we should be working to bring the whole diseased structure down before it starts a war.      

Bravery Lacking

One issue that Ron Suskind raised at Chatham House on Tuesday was the inability of any politician to tell the economic truth as it is. The closest we have got to it in this country is Cameron's speech to the Tory Party Conference last week in which he said that it was sink or swim time as he warned the country about deepening austerity. He was confirming what Osborne had already said in his conference speech in which he pronounced that he would be looking for significant cuts in welfare spending. This is as far as our leaders dare go in admitting that we are truly living in tough times and that there is no alternative to cuts in government spending. It is a great shame that proper cuts weren't made when the Coalition came into power as we would have been over the hardest part by now instead of having it still to come. It seems that not only did the Government not appreciate the depth of damage done by the previous administration but was also scared that we would react badly to real cuts. If we were given the bad news straight we would have accepted the necessary medicine on the basis that taking it quickly in the right dose stops the situation getting worse and then having to take more medicine. If the purpose of their pussyfooting around was to try to keep as many people employed as possible then I would say they have succeeded well since the private sector has taken up the slack caused by the reduction in numbers of civil servants. More civil servants need to go and apart from other cuts we need to slash the amount we pay to the EU including to the CAP which is hugely to our disadvantage costing UK households in excess of £300 a year. The other item which desperately needs cutting is household energy bills which amount to something like £1,200 a year for which we have to thank that lump of lard Mr Ed Davey, a fine example of a LibDem although he's not a liberal and not a democrat. If he were a liberal he would believe in a free market in energy and if he were a democrat he would be prepared to listen to those who have a well researched but different take on climate change.      

Confidence and Obama

Ron Suskind at a lecture this evening at Chatham House believes Obama lost his confidence following a dispute with his advisers on how to handle the banks. Initially Obama had relied on people like Paul Volcke for advice on how to handle the banks. Volcke and his cohorts had advised that the banks should be nationalised and brought down to size. No longer should they be too big to fail and neither should they be allowed to be both a commercial and investment bank. Unfortunately Obama was persuaded to change advisers with Tim Geithner as Treasury Secretary. Geithner and his cohorts both supported the status quo in the banking sector and bank bail outs and, despite Obama requesting a Swedish as opposed to a Japanese solution for the financial crisis, Geithner and co. wore him down to the point where he gave in. All the research carried out by Obama which had led him to demand his advisers prepare a Swedish style plan was for naught. In Suskind's opinion this took the stuffing out of Obama to the extent that he lost his confidence with the result that he simply failed to engage with a confident Romney in the first televised debate. Obama will likely do better in tonight's debate as he has a better grasp of foreign affairs than Romney but Suskind's guess is Obama is likely to fail in the third debate. It does not seem to matter what a politician does or says that wins him votes but how he presents himself. A candidate who comes across as confident in what he says will win more support than a candidate who appears hesitant or uncomfortable or who lacks confidence. It is possible Obama will hide his lack of confidence in the third debate but according to Suskind Obama is not an actor and can only be true to himself.  

Scotland The Brave

Yesterday Cameron and Salmond signed the accord to enable the Scottish  Independence  Referendum to be held on the 700th anniversary of the Scots victory over the English at the Battle of Bannockburn. Salmond hopes the choice of date will boost the independence vote by reminding the Scots of how they can beat the English. The Scots are not fools though and Salmond's choice of date will not persuade them to vote in favour of independence anymore than by allowing 16 and 17 year olds to vote. 16 and 17 year olds are supposed to be more romantically attached to their country and more fervently patriotic and thus more likely to vote for independence but if the polls are anything to go by they will vote in the same percentages, for and against, as their elders. Even though it is disagreeable to be on the receiving end of what is in effect a divorce petition that generates a desire to tell the Scots to 'get lost', sentiment and reason tells us to hope that the referendum is lost and that we remain one nation. If the referendum is won the Scots still intend to use the English pound in the same way as the Irish did following their independence. The Irish though swapped the pound for the euro as soon as there was a chance to do so, which is a decision that many of them must now be bitterly regretting as a result of the total failure of the euro as a currency. The Scots have posted a desire to switch to the euro as soon as circumstances allow. No doubt the euro will have a false dawn or two when, if the SNP are still in charge, they will decide to make the transition and, I predict, bitterly regret it. Marry in haste, repent at leisure and all that. Should the vote be in favour of independence then the amount of national debt, the portion of the North Sea oil and gas fields and other such shared assets and liabilities to go to Scotland will have to be negotiated. This could last for months and could leave a bitter taste with either the English or the Scots or both. If the two countries are to split we will have to look for the silver linings. There is one that immediately comes to mind and that is that the SNP are much keener on green issues than the Tories in whom I detect a shift towards a more sceptical approach. Such shift is still far too little for my liking but has been enough to frighten Blair's discredited climate change guru Stern into writing an article in the FT this morning calling for Cameron to embed decarbonisation of the power sector in a framework for the reform of the electricity market. Stern does not of course mention the cost of such an unnecessary policy to be added to the 6% or so increase in the cost of energy we are all going to have to suffer this winter caused by the green stratagem that has already been imposed on the UK.          

BBC Scandals

The Jim'll Fix It show was a great put off as far as I was concerned. I could never understand the adulation with which it seems he and his show were greeted. To me it exploited the stories of not only the unfortunate but also the naive and having seen it once I never watched it again. I do recall though being told when the country was going through one of its paedophile scandals some years ago that Jimmy Savile was guilty of child abuse, that the police knew about it but decided not to do anything because of the help and pleasure his show brought to millions. At the time I was sceptical and thought what I had been told was tittle tattle and likely untrue. I do not know whether the police were involved in the cover up of Savile's crimes but it is now certain the BBC protected Savile from his just deserts. Any private organisation that has behaved like the BBC has done would be the subject of a police investigation to find those who authorised the cover up or rather perverted the course of justice and aided and abetted a criminal to carry out his crimes. I will fall off my chair if the BBC and its responsible executives are charged with anything or suffer any other consequence for their actions. It just goes to show that the BBC is above the law that the rest of us, including private companies, have to abide by. This is why the BBC can continue its bias against the Tories, the Republicans and even the natives of this land contrary to its statutory duty to be impartial. This is why it can continue its bias in favour of the climate change scam, the EU, immigration and the Labour Party. The BBC just carries on its dishonest way with impunity and will do so until it is wound up. Patten's inquiry will be a damp squib and the BBC will get away with it once again. I accept it is not possible for each of us to be impartial all of the time. In order to achieve any kind of impartiality it seems obvious therefore that a plurality of providers is required. Thus the BBC should be replaced by private companies which like the newspapers can follow their own political star and we the public can choose which particular flavour suits us best. The solution is simple but will any politician dare administer the medicine? Probably not but at least the BBC with 60% of the market could and should be cut down to less than a 50% share thus giving space in which Sky and/or other providers can grow. The obligation for providers to be impartial should be abandoned as should the iniquitous licence fee.

The Nobel Peace Prize Joke

Thank goodness the Nobel Peace Prize is not a British affair as one can imagine the jokes at our expense that would be bandied around for awarding this much debased leaden award to the EU. There have been one or two awards of this decoration that have been appropriate but in recent years I cannot recall one where I have felt this was so. Prior to this year's award to the EU the most inappropriate was the award to Obama who should have had the grace to refuse it but being the vain person he is decided to accept it. The prize has been given to the EU for keeping the peace in Europe. They couldn't be that ignorant surely? They must know that peace in Europe has been kept by Nato? Surely the Prize committee must be having another of its little jokes like the award to Bummer before he'd even been President for more than 5 minutes. With the euro crisis tearing any goodwill between nations apart the Peace Prize award to the EU is truly surreal. This spotlight on the EU brings back to us all its grotesque failings. Its huge cost, its corruption, its democratic deficit and the arrogance of its bureaucrats. Who in their right minds would have set up a currency union before having a political union? Who in their right minds would have set up the common agricultural policy? Who in their right minds would have introduced the carbon emission restriction policy that is not only unnecessary but is going to cost us billions? Funny too that the Norwegians voted against joining the EU. Clearly Norwegian voters are more savvy than those on the Nobel Peace Prize committee who have demonstrated a romantic view of the world. They wouldn't be socialists would they? It is thrilling to know though that I am in good company  with many distinguished commentators who also see the award as a farce. See Ambrose Evans-Pritchard's piece on this here, Iain Martin's piece here, Daniel Hannan's piece here and The Commentator's blog here. It is not only the Nobel Peace Prize committee that needs its collective head examined but also the Nobel Literature Prize committee. How could it possibly have given the literature prize to Mo Yan? From what I have read about him I understand that he is a vociferous supporter of the Chinese regime. This may be somewhat exaggerated as his books have somtimes been banned by the authorities.        

Cameron's Turn

Our energy regulator Ofgem is reported as saying that we can expect power cuts in winter 2015/16 as spare capacity drops from 14% to 4%. According to the Department of Energy etc (run by our wonderful LibDem Secretary of State, Ed Davey) this is not going to happen since the Energy Bill when enacted will ensure secure supply. Only though if we import more gas. Importing gas will have the effect of putting up prices as will the useless wind farms that are being built. The eco fascists like Greenpeace will be thrilled that we are going back to the middle ages. No doubt others will welcome the sense of all being in this together as we struggle to keep warm. However I wouldn't like to bet on the majority of us being so community minded when our mobiles, iPods and tablets and the like fail to work because we can't charge them. At that stage we will no doubt be One Nation but not in the sense Miliband meant. What did Miliband mean though when he used the phrase as no one, not even Disraeli, really knew what he meant by it when he used the phrase first. The expectations for Miliband's speech were so low that as Bruce Anderson said in his piece in ConservativeHome here any half decent speech was bound to be greeted as a great success. Despite its length and vacuousness it was delivered with a certain charm and so achieved acclamation. Although some might now regard him in a different light I doubt that Miliband's candle will burn with the same glow for long since he's the same oddball as he was before he made his speech. The media as well as many of his MPs are now piling the pressure on Cameron to produce a speech that is also greeted with acclamation of the order of Mitt Romney's surprise success against Bummer (and what a bummer of a performance Obama gave). With the economy still in difficulty and various other problems such as the train franchise fiasco there's no doubt Cameron has a tough call but if he's clever he will admit to the mistakes, point out that by contrast neither Miliband nor Balls have apologised for the financial disaster Labour left us, that the deficit reduction programme has been working although not as well as was hoped but that it will continue and that the reform of education and welfare will continue as well. Cameron should also say that we can sort out the mess we inherited and that there is light at the end of the tunnel. Cameron also needs to adopt a much more sceptical tone on the EU and on energy and tell us exactly what he will do on these issues that is vital for this country's good.

Old Labour Is Back Again

So Ed Miliband will not break with the Unions since, as he told Andrew Marr on the BBC on Sunday, by keeping its link with the Unions Labour remains connected to the ordinary working man and by implication to all those wage slaves out there in the world. If Miliband believes that twisted logic he will believe in anything. He maintained with a straight face that keeping faith with the Unions had nothing to do with the Unions being the Labour party bankers nor that it was because he only became leader of the Labour party thanks to the Trade Unions block votes. The two Eds want to take us back to the days of Attlee when Labour constructed the base for a socialist society by extending rationing, imposing the disastrous NHS, nationalising all sorts of industries and condemning us to years and years of decline that shamefully, until Mrs Thatcher, the Tories went along with as a result of fear of the Unions and a disbelief that the tide could ever be turned and that we could become a free market economy again. Thatcher's job has not been completed. We still have a third rate health system in which the wishes of those employed in the sector take precedence over those of the consumer. The two Eds also continue to blame the excesses of the banks for the global financial crisis that started in 2007 and from which we are still struggling to extract ourselves. They naturally refuse to acknowledge Labour's own dire part in that disaster and like all those of the left live in a world of self delusion that they and they alone can save the world. However as wonderful as they paint their vision of the world, and socialists are good at that kind of false caring propaganda, reality breaks in every now and again when over taxing and over  spending has to be reined in. Labour then leaves it to the Tories to clear up the mess. It amazes me the numbers of voters who get taken in again and again by the socialists but it is after all human nature to want the easy soft life paid for by others. No socialist, despite the evidence, accepts either the Laffer curve or a free market economy. Their attitude is lets soak the rich; the rich can pay for the necessities and also the fripperies of the poor; the rich can afford it. What an unbelievably irresponsible attitude. Aren't we all equal in the eyes of our maker and if that means anything isn't the rich man owed as much respect as a poor man and if that's so doesn't the rich man deserve to be treated as fairly as the poor one and isn't it in all our interests that those that have the knack of doing well be encouraged to do so rather than spat upon? Miliband's attempt this afternoon to take the One Nation mantle from the Tories and to claim that on Labour's return to power they will restore the NHS to how it was before the Tories pushed through the Blair reforms can only make one smile.          

The Renegers - Germany, Netherlands and Finland

It is not difficult to understand why the Germans are so terrified of inflation and will do anything to prevent it escalating above a percentage point or two. There is an interesting piece on this German attitude to inflation and debt, that is foreign to us, in the Open Europe blog today which you can access here. According to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard ('A E-P') in the Telegraph today the extent to which to Germans as well as the Dutch and the Finns are prepared to go extends to breaching an agreement reached in good faith by the Spanish in exchange for accepting the austerity terms attached to the bail out which agreement provided for the ESM bail out fund to take over the cost of recapitalising Spain's banks. If the ESM were to take over such cost it put German and Dutch banks at severe risk of collapse. A E-P's essential  article can be read here. Rajoy will never save his country from ruin if it remains in the euro and any moral reason he felt Spain was under for doing so has now disappeared as a result of the Germans, Dutch and Finns reneging on what had been agreed about the ESM takeover of Spanish bank support. As I said yesterday the euro must now be terminated with extreme prejudice in order to get us all out of the mess it has helped create. Roger Bootle is also saying something similar apparently in Fortune Magazine. I do not have a link but I do have a link to a piece by Charles Crawford that gives a brief idea of what Bootle thinks here.

Lower Taxes And Energy Costs Needed Urgently

Allister Heath's article this morning in City A.M. was one of the most depressing articles I have ever read about our economy. If you haven't seen it you can read it here. It is difficult to see how matters can be turned around in time for the next election without some kind of miracle. Miracles don't happen but there is one light flickering at the end of a long tunnel which if it is real could well help the world recover its economic health more quickly than otherwise looks to be the case. The flickering light of hope is the implosion of the euro. Although only said sotto voce at this time Germany's exit from the euro is now being talked about (by Martin Wolf of the FT for one) as a less scary option than other courses of action. Furthermore the euro intensified troubles in Spain, which threaten its status as a country and at the worst could lead to a military coup, means Spain would benefit from its exit from the euro - a far less awful outcome than the loss of its democracy. It just needs one country to exit the euro for others to see that such action will not lead to the catastrophe prophesied by euro fanatics. It will not be a painless process but at least those countries that do choose this route will regain their currency sovereignty, be able to devalue and eventually achieve a healthier economy - see Iceland for example. Once one country demonstrates the advantages of leaving the euro others will follow. Growth will then develop and it will be this that will help the world and the UK recover from this continuing financial crisis. It really is urgent that the euro breaks up without further delay. Fiddling around with ideas of ever closer union is like Nero fiddling while Rome burns. One thing for sure though that the UK does not need in this time of gloom is increased taxes. We desperately need lower taxes and lower energy costs too. Cameron and Osborne, despite the LibDems objections, must have the guts to push tax cuts and shale exploitation through as a matter of urgency. There is not a moment to lose.  

I Can Swear If I Want To

I am a great fan of Janet Daley and read her articles in the Sunday Telegraph avidly. Janet is a Tory supporter but what helps to make her interesting is that she is originally an American and used to be a socialist. Her background therefore enables her to see things from a different perspective to most of us. It was a surprise therefore to read her blog in the Telegraph this afternoon in which she maintains a lot of Tories are extremely difficult to get on with because of their Mitchell like attitude and that it is the Tory modernisers who are the worse because most of them are toffs. Janet goes on to say that Labour members are infinitely more polite and likeable as people. My experience of politicians is nowhere near as extensive as Janet's but my take on them is that they are all as equally unlikeable as each other and can only think that Tory politicians behave in the way they do with her because they find her, as one well known political editor of a national newspaper told me unkindly, "Janet is barking mad".  Whether Mitchell told the Downing Street Gate policeman he was a 'pleb' or not is frankly neither here nor there but it is Mitchell's appallingly arrogant behaviour that deserves censure and he should resign as a result. Someone in Mitchell's position should set an example. The other thing that rings a wrong note in this affair is that under the Public Order Act the policeman could apparently have arrested Mitchell for swearing at him. Why shouldn't we be able to swear at policemen or anybody else for that matter? What puts a policeman above the rest of us that we all have to bow and scrape to them. I think it was a Labour measure that brought in this law and like a lot of Labour restrictions on the freedom of the individual it should be abolished. It was Blair who was responsible for bringing in law after law restricting our freedoms in order to demonstrate that Labour was even tougher on law and order issues than the Tories. He hoped that by donning some Tory clothes those on the left of the Tory party would continue voting for him and much to my amazement sufficient numbers did just and thus enabled him to win three elections. Blair is now trying to ensure that his son Euan is given a safe Labour seat at the next election so that the Blair dynasty lives on. Yuk. You can fool some of the people .............

Cable Talks Nonsense

Vince Cable was interviewed by Jeff Randall on the latter's show this evening about Cable's announcement concerning the business bank Cable had announced this afternoon during his LibDem Conference speech. Anyone with only a modicum of knowledge about how banks work would have been astonished by Cable's complete lack of knowledge of the subject as became evident by Randall's questioning. Cable defended his idea by saying business banks were something that other countries relied on including the German banks but obviously didn't know that the German banks still have undisclosed losses from the sub-prime debts they bought in the USA. Cable did not seem to know either who would end up carrying the can if the business bank he wants to set up with a £1 bn of taxpayers money were to make losses until at Randall's prodding he finally realised it would be the taxpayers. He also mentioned government guarantees but it was difficult to tell whether these would be in addition to the £1 bn or whether the bank's capital would be made up of a £1 bn guarantee. From the vague way he talked about guarantees it seem the bank will be capitalised with both cash and a government guarantee since he he said that if there were losses this could result in a diminution of the bank's capital and the call on the government guarantee. If true one wonders what the amount of the guarantee would be and under what circumstances a call could be made against it. Cable did say that the Government would not be assessing risk but this would be done by other banks. One question Randall didn't ask in exactly this form is what makes Cable think that another bank, if it's not risking its own money, will be as cautious in assessing risk as it would be if it were the lender. Cable's response was that banks were not lending to SMEs and the business bank would do so. He failed to mention that one reason banks are reluctant to lend, apart from credit worthiness issues, is because the capital requirement for banks has been strengthened resulting in banks having less money to lend. Altogether Cable was unimpressive. How he or the third rate Ed Davey can be thought of as replacements for the awful Clegg it is beyond me. Truly the LibDems lack any politician of any stature and deserve to be routed in the next election. It is not surprising to see that they are behind UKIP in today's poll.    

Money Makes The World Go Round

The public finance figures out today aren't wholly bad since they show that the deficit has been reduced by some 25% since 2010. However Government borrowing for August is the same as last year and the deficit for the first 5 months of the fiscal year that started in April is £10.6 bn more than for the same period last year with the likelihood that the deficit for the year will be £10 bn than projected. The reason for this is down to the lack of growth and the consequent lack of sufficient increase in the revenue stream. This glitch in the plan to cut the deficit by 2015 is said by Mervyn King to be OK so long as the targets have not been met due to a global economic slowdown. It is true that there has been a global slowdown made far worse by the euro crisis which has been handled in such an incompetent way it is surprising the whole thing has not yet collapsed in disorder. Instead of breaking up the euro in an orderly solution it is being aloud to survive for some incomprehensible ideological reason and no doubt to save the faces of EU bureaucrats. Whilst on the subject of markets (which was how the EU was originally sold to us - as a Common Market) you should read Jeremy Warner's article in today's Telegraph here in which he states that the idea that there will be no war between nations that trade with each other is an illusion and he instances a book published in 1910 which supported that theory and which was proved dramatically wrong only 4 years later. Warner warns that the same thing could happen all over again. This is surely a reason why the merger of BAE and EADS should not be allowed. There are too many sensitive issues involved for this country for our independence on defence matters to be compromised in any way and the fear must be that as the bigger partner EADS will want to take our ideas and exclude us from developing them in a manner that suits us and our needs. The time for a decision to be made about our involvement in the European Defence Agency has also arrived and the answer must be 'No' to continuing as a participant. There is an interesting post about this on The Commentator blog here. If UKIP were to have an electoral pact with the Tories as proposed by Farage today then there is little doubt that we would resile from the EDA and refuse to allow the proposed merger between BAE and EADS to go through. It would also mean we'd get a simple In/Out referendum before we negotiated any new arrangement with the EU. Having an electoral pact with UKIP sounds like a good idea!

Does Clegg Have A Screw Loose?

Iain Martin makes a good point in his Telegraph piece today about Clegg, which you can read here. He thinks Clegg may be stupid and it is difficult to argue otherwise. In other times one would ask whether Clegg was gung-ho. Would Clegg attack when it might be better to make a tactical withdrawal? The evidence, which consists of the way he managed the rise in tuition fees in direct contradiction to his pre-election promise, demonstrates that he does not think things through. Neither it has to be said does Vince Cable who is blowing his mouth off this evening about further cuts saying he will not agree to them and neither will he agree to a two year freeze on benefits. The main point about the Coalition is to cut the deficit and this can only be done by cutting spending, making room for tax cuts and thus encouraging those with more money in their pockets to spend more and thereby nurture growth. Simples - but not to the obtuse Secretary of Business etc.. Jesse Norman MP in the Financial Times today expressed the opinion though that the cost to the Government of capital investment is significantly less than the private sector could ever hope to achieve. Norman asserts that the Government should maintain fiscal consolidation but significantly increase capital investment at the same time. In his view £25bn of capital investment at current interest rates would cost just £250m whereas for the private sector the cost would be £375m to £500m or 50% to 100% more. He gives an example of what he means by saying that for every 10 miles of privately financed road the Government could give you 15 to 20 miles. The trouble though with Norman's point is that by Government making the investment it crowds out the private sector and thus no wealth is created for the benefit of of us all. It is to be hoped that Osborne does not listen to Norman on this point even if the latter makes sense about continuing the fiscal consolidation. Norman is of course also entirely correct about Larry Summers, Paul Krugman and the Labour party being wrong big time about how to deal with the current financial problems Labour left us with. Other problems the last Government left us with are smaller by comparison but it is good to see that the Coalition is sticking with its schools, health, welfare and other policies. Now that Ofcom have decided that BSkyB is a fit and proper licence holder the Government must not turn down News Corp if it were to rebid for the shares it does not already own in BSkyB despite Ofcom's statements about James Murdoch.    

Give Romney A Break

Romney is apparently gaffe prone to such a degree that it is now a given that he will lose the election as a result. What is it though that he has actually said? In one instance he told his audience of donors that the Middle East will "remain an unsolved problem.... and we kick the ball down the field and hope that ultimately, somehow, something will happen and resolve it. We don't want to go to war to try and resolve it imminently. So the only answer is show your strength. Again, American strength, American resolve, as the Palestinians someday reach the point where they want peace more than we're trying to push peace on them... and then it's worth having the discussion. Until then, it's just wishful thinking." Seems to me that Romney's assessment is spot on and that his comment about not going to war is responsible. Romney also said that Palestinians are committed to the destruction and elimination of Israel, that they have no interest whatsoever in establishing peace and that the pathway to peace is almost unthinkable to accomplish. Again these are accurate statements so where are the gaffes here? Romney has been refreshingly honest since we all know that the only peace Palestine is currently prepared to accept is one which involves Israel disappears completely. We are told that Romney made another gaffe when he said that "47% of Americans pay no income tax. So our message of low taxes doesn't connect. And [Obama] will be out there talking about tax cuts for the rich. I mean that's what [the Democrats] sell every four years. And so my job is not to worry about those people - I'll never convince them that they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives." Again where's the gaffe in this? It reads to me like another accurate statement. Romney is also being criticised for saying that the debt burdens of Western countries were caused by being over generous to too many out of an inadequate revenue stream. Osborne has been saying the same thing and is also being criticised for telling it as it is. Thomas Pascoe has an interesting piece in the Telegraph today on this which you can read here. Romney's statements demonstrate that he is a realist which after all the dream rubbish propagated by Obama is like a breath of fresh. One can only hope that Romney's honesty will be seen as attractive to the swing voters who decide elections since with all the potential flare points in the world we need a tough United States not the weak one that has been projected by the Obama regime.          

The Dog Van Rompuy

Nigel Farage is reminiscent of the Club bore or (as some might unkindly say) of this blog. Even though what he says may be something with which one agrees his manner of declaiming his views, despite his bravery in uttering them, is off key somehow.  There is little wrong with his message but an awful lot wrong in the way he says it.  This is why he does not have a greater following and this is why the Tories will never take UKIP seriously. If Boris became leader of UKIP then Cameron would really have a fight on his hands but unless something dramatic happens Boris is never going to abandon his position in the Tory party. Nor is Boris going to become Tory leader for the very reasons Simon Heffer sets out in his article in the Daily Mail which you can read here. It is a pity that Boris does not seek the UKIP mantle as then the Tory policy on Europe would have to change and we'd get the referendum we deserve which would be a simple In or Out one. The Scots will have an In or Out referendum on independence so why can't we have one too on a question is equally as serious? Concern about Farage's qualities as leader of UKIP does not mean that he should not have all our support in what is an appalling miscarriage of justice by the so called nonentity called the European Parliament. Appalling though not surprising that Farage has been found guilty and fined  by the 'Parliament' €2,990 for being rude about van Rompuy by saying he had the charisma of a 'damp rag'  or a 'low grade bank clerk'. I would say Farage insulted low grade bank clerks by comparing van Rompuy to them although I doubt they can sue for such an insult. Low grade bank clerks have always been most helpful to me whereas I would say van Rompuy is a piece of excrement of the kind that gets stuck to the bottom of one's shoe and proves difficult to dislodge quickly or at all without sticks and paper. This verdict tells us an awful lot about the EU and its pathetic self important little 'Parliament'. Already we know it does not believe in democracy and now we see it does not believe in freedom of speech. Guido has a post on this which you can read here. It is curious though as Guido says that not more has appeared about this case in the UK newspapers. Indeed Guido's post was the first I had heard of it. It is an absolute outrage and one wonders what the European Parliament would do if Farage refuses to pay the fine. Stick him in some prison maybe. We would then need to send a gunboat to that excuse of a country Belgium to rescue him.

Banking Regulation, QE3, Conflicts and Kate

Daniel Hannan has an interesting piece here about EU regulation and how in the long term it will lead to another crash. He's right and it is urgent that we leave the EU as that is the only way we can hope to have more sensible regulation. We simply cannot allow ourselves to be led by the nose down a path that we know is going to swallow us whole because we are too polite to call a spade a spade. Contrary to our nature we are going to have to tell the rest of the EU we know more about financial markets than they do and that we need the freedom to regulate our way in order to ensure the City continues as a big revenue driver for the UK, indeed the biggest revenue driver. There was another article this morning which is worth reading here and which is by Allister Heath of City A.M. on QE3 in the U.S. and the consequences of the same. Quantitative easing will result in a disaster and despite the various economists supporting it there are apparently more who oppose it. It is possible the majority is wrong but it is nice to be with them for once. We need genuinely free markets and not the kind of crony capitalism that gives us the likes of the arrogant evil smelling Tim Yeo who whilst chairing a select committee on Energy and Climate Change is also on the board of TMO Renewables, a green company. CCHQ are apparently looking into the conflict of interest question but like Ceasar's wife the chairman of a select committee should be above suspicion and as he is not he should resign. Guido has been after Yeo for some time now and has already made him resign as a director of some other 'green' company. Guido held a poll today asking his readers whether or not the photos of Duchess Kate topless should be published which you can see here. The result was 'no' which was how I voted on the basis that it is not in the public interest to see the photos as Kate did nothing wrong. It is a pity that Guido has not had a poll as well on whether when our lady representatives visit muslim countries they should wear a headscarf. This I know is done out of politeness but it has to be said that when the wife of a muslim leader visits this country she always wears a headscarf rather than appearing bare headed. Where is the quid pro quo here and does the wearing of a headscarf by say Duchess Kate feed the muslim belief that their religion is superior and that we should all become muslims? As a matter of principle no female representative of this country should wear a headscarf in a muslim country.    

Obama Fails Again

The world is getting smaller in many ways and particularly in the West. It is not getting small enough  though as far as religion is concerned and certainly not in those places peopled by overwhelming hordes of savage, ill educated fanatics like the unwashed rag heads of Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Pakistan and so on. With all the experience of the past few years about how any criticism of Mohamed can lead to violent demonstrations it seems remiss, to say the least of it, that the U.S. State Department didn't appreciate that the film "Innocence of Muslims" could cause the riots that have so far resulted in four deaths. The film was made apparently by a Copt living in California who often posts anti Muslim videos on YouTube and who must be known to the FBI or whatever agency it is that is responsible for overseeing people doing those kind of things. The U.S. authorities must therefore have had some idea about when this film was going to hit the street. It beggars belief therefore that not only didn't anyone think the film would be seen as inflammatory but that security was not extensively upgraded at all US Missions in Muslim countries before the films release. Bummer Obama was sleeping on his watch. Romney is right to say that Bummer Obama's appeasement policy simply isn't good enough. Bummer Obama has given the impression that the U.S. is withdrawing from its super power role and of course the vacuum that this has caused will lead to violence. For this reason alone I would vote for Romney if I were an American. The other reason would be the economy. QE3 will prove to be a damp squib just like QE1 and QE2. If these had worked there would be no need of QE3 but they didn't so why QE3? Why throw more good money after bad? What needs to be done as here is deeper and quicker cuts. Not more borrowing and postponement of the cuts until some future date as the world, particularly in our case, will soon cease to believe we are determined to sort out our finances and force us to pay a lot more for our borrowings.  

Richard III and Barroso

Has Richard III's body been found buried under a municipal car park in Leicester? The car park stands on the site of what was originally the Church of a Friary before Henry VIII had it destroyed during the Reformation. The skeleton is scoliotic i.e. shows curvature of the spine making the right shoulder higher than the left but not a hunchback nor a withered arm. Whether it is Richard III or not will be determined by a DNA test involving a direct descendant of Richard's sister, Anne of York. If it is Richard III where will his skeleton be re-intered? There is a good argument that it should be placed in a mausoleum in Leicester Cathedral. Although not a Cathedral at the time of Richard's death as there was no Bishop of Leicester between the time the last Saxon bishop fled from the Danes about a 1000 years ago and 1927, the Cathedral could well do with a bit of publicity in a City that has become a town from a different land since World War II. Perhaps the re-internment could also be used as a reminder of the City's English origins and the need for those origins to be respected not only by the immigrant population but also by those in the EU that seek to expunge England as a nation and replace it by meaningless regions so beloved of John Prescott. It will be too much to hope that the message of our nationhood will get through to people like Barroso who has today made a breathtaking announcement that he and the European Commission will be working towards treaty changes to usher in a Federal State of Europe. He will find that this will be a complete turn off in this country and no doubt in other countries too which will vigorously resist the introduction of such an institution. The time has now arrived to tell Barroso and van Rompuy and the European Commission our terms for remaining in the sclerotic EU of which it becomes clearer every day that we are better off out unless the rules are dramatically changed in our favour. There is absolutely no way that we can allow the EU to impose on us any control, for example, over the way the City of London operates since to do so would lead to our impoverishment. An impoverishment that I suspect Paris and Frankfurt are already working to achieve. By the way, if Barroso were to be killed in a battle today and his body buried in what was later to become a car park how much interest would there be even 10 years from now on his body being re-discovered?              

Boos for Paralympic Audiences

There is a certain attitude attached to the Paralympics which is unsettling and which seems to be saying 'aren't we of the left superior to the rest of the world by the way we support the disabled'? This attitude manifested itself through the boos with which George Osborne was greeted the other day in the Olympic Stadium and the cheers for Gordon Brown on the same day. John Phelan in The Commentator blog has a very good point in his post about the ignorance of those who cheered Gordon Brown and which you can read here. The arrogant idea that only those on the left appreciate and support the disabled is appalling particularly when you think that disability is politically blind and can strike anyone from any walk of life and particularly when the revenue to help the disabled comes just as much from the right as from the left. Sometimes some members of this Nation make one sick, not only like those who booed Osborne but cheered Brown but also like those who are selling T-Shirts at the TUC conference bearing a slogan about dancing on Thatcher's grave. I suppose though one could take it as a back handed compliment that this remarkable woman despite the Unions' plans for us managed to thwart them but it is more like a display of jealousy because there has never been a Labour politician who achieved so much for this country as Maggie did. Certainly there is no Labour politician who either commands the same respect or the same level of hatred. You only have to look at Blair, probably their most successful politician, to understand the truly third rate quality the Labour movement aspires to in its leaders. And Ed Miliband continues the tradition with his 'predistribution' philosophy, if that's what you can call it. Anyway it is a somewhat unworkable idea that could mean each individual being given a pot of gold the value of which will depend on his/her wealth at the time of the donation. What value of pot will be given to the penniless child of a wealthy parent? The rules and regulations needed to make predistribution will make the current welfare system look like a picnic. Miliband would be better trying to understand free markets and how they benefit society!            

Strauss and the Phoenix

Having resigned as England Cricket Captain today there is talk of Strauss standing for the Tories in the upcoming by-election in Corby and there being support for him to do so amongst the locals. The betting apparently is 25/1 that Strauss gets selected as the Tory candidate and 16/1 that he will win the by-election. Not that good odds one has to say in what is currently a Tory seat, albeit a marginal one made more marginal by the present disappointment with the economy and thus the Coalition. It is not surprising that there is disappointment with the Coalition when the Deputy Prime Minister Mr Clegg decides to demand a wealth tax. Osborne has quietly and politely poured cold water on the whole idea but must have been cursing Clegg's stupidity in private. It is quite ludicrous to think that taxing the rich with a higher tax percentage is not going to send the wealthy away. Already the road to London from France is becoming more and more crowded as a direct result of Hollande's policy of taxing the wealthy at a 75% rate. It amazes that those who seek high taxation have never learnt from the past and it makes it absolutely necessary to repeat and keep repeating that the price of freedom is eternal vigilance or to adapt Eisenhower's famous saying the price of wealth is constant reminders of the damage high taxes cause. Osborne must continue to reduce taxes for all when the results will show that we are not a nation in decline yet again but a phoenix that is soaring. That should go down well with any campaign run by whoever is chosen as the Tory candidate in the Corby by-election.

NB I am away for the next 10 days.

Harry's 'Fun' Side

Did Prince Harry get it wrong by stripping off? Would he have done it if he knew he would be photographed if he did so? Were his minders lacking in common sense in not insisting all cameras and mobile 'phones were left outside his room - probably? Boys will be boys and no harm has been done by the third in line to the throne by showing his rear end and it is difficult to understand what all the fuss is about. There is one area though about which we should all be concerned and that is the effect of the Leveson enquiry on all the newspapers - that effect being to inhibit them from publishing the pictures despite the fact that many of us had seen them online. There was one exception, which was the Sun. I do not for one minute accept the reason they gave for publishing the photos, that there was a public interest issue involved, but I applaud the much needed two fingers they gave Leveson by doing so as well as their clear commercial reason. If Leveson's report suggests some kind of privacy law then it must be ignored. We really can't have the likes of Hugh Grant tell us what can and cannot be published anymore than we can have a politician do so. There are libel laws and the wealthy can take advantage of them. It seems Cameron does not believe anything was wrong in Harry being Harry anyway. A friend of mine's son was  staying near the Camerons in Cornwall over the weekend and on running into him asked what he thought about Harry and the photos. Cameron replied with a huge grin "No comment", which to me says it all. Cameron anyway has more serious matters to worry about than Harry's photos, the conflicted Yeo and Deben for one. They must be forced to resign from their climate change positions if they wish to continue as directors and shareholders of companies directly benefitting or likely to benefit from government subsidies. With the US and Germany using shale gas and coal respectively to keep their power stations going when wind produced electricity is unavailable (most of the time) we must do the same to ensure we are competitive. This is now an urgent issue and Cameron should seize the moment and get rid of the third rate Ed Davey in his reshuffle and replace him with someone who supports Lawson's views on the global warming subject.    

Shrinkage And Gas Filled Balloons

The last quarter's figures have been adjusted and we are now told the economy contracted by 0.5% rather than by 0.7%. There are naturally all number of calls for further Government spending to kick start the economy and take us out of recession with the BBC saying the deep cuts haven't worked. As any fule no, despite Osborne's statement when he came into office that he would impose spending cuts, there have been none - indeed the reverse has been the case with borrowing increasing considerably. In its attempt to mend the economy left in extreme danger by those geniuses Messrs Blair and Brown the Coalition had hoped to increase revenue through tax increases and so reduce debt that way. No hoped for increase in revenues has arrived thus proving the point made by the Laffer Curve. All the Chancellor can do now is to do what he said he was going to do to begin with. He must now cut even harder into the boil which has festered and grown bigger since he first took over its care. He should radically reduce taxes with some of the savings he makes using the balance to reduce the deficit faster and then begin to tackle the debt. At the same time Osborne must do everything he can to speed up the extraction of gas from our shale gas fields. The US has made significant cuts in its overseas gas dependency by aggressively extracting its shale gas and we can do the same. A side effect of using shale gas in the US has been to reduce carbon emissions which for those who are climate warmists must be an unexpected and pleasing bonus (though I doubt many warmists will be satisfied until we go back to candle power). Another beneficial effect, particularly if European countries exploit their own shale gas deposits, will be to curtail Russia's power by reducing its ability to manipulate its neighbours by cutting off their gas supplies from Russian fields as they have done in the past. There is an interesting post in The Commentator blog today about the likely effect of the exploitation of oil and gas fields in Russia's neighbouring countries and also of the fields discovered in the eastern Mediterranean by Cyprus and Israel which you can read here.       

Flooding The Market

George Friedman of Stratfor takes a view that others have promoted in whole or part that Germany set up the euro in large part to protect German creditors from its customer countries inflating their way out of debt. With this in mind Friedman goes on to propound that Merkel's actions are predictable because they will all be taken to ensure the euro continues to perform that function. Thus logically Germany cannot allow even Greece to leave the free trade zone. Friedman also believes that the euro crisis was caused by Germany flooding the eurozone market with its goods and by the imposition of regulations by the EU Germany had insisted on. Friedman goes on to say that Mrs Merkel knows that eventually Germany will have to agree to pay for the cost of the crisis but in the meantime she will do all she can to ensure that the new structure is suitable to Germany above all others. If this alone is not a reason for us to say goodbye to the EU it is certainly one of the weightiest ones. There is not time for us to try and beat Germany at this game as we do not currently have enough muscle nor at the end of the day would it profit us to do so even if it is always a pleasure to get the best of the Germans. Better by far that we concentrate on getting our finances sorted out and achieve the export and other rankings in the world that are rightfully ours or would be if we worked as hard at these issues as we did at winning medals at this year's Olympics. Despite what Friedman says I do not accept that Germany specifically set out to flood the EU market with its goods as to do so would inevitably lead to a reaction. The result though of Germany's action compounded by other idiocies going on in the world like the sub-prime market bubble and the dysfunctional euro led to the euro crisis that is likely to affect us all. This year is the  twentieth anniversary of our crashing out of the ERM which released us from the strait jacket ruining our economy. Leaving the euro will have the same affect on the economy of each country that does so  despite the initial pain they will suffer and whatever the eurocrats may say.    

A Pussy Bully Jails 3 Cats

Russia has never been a world leader save in barbarism and murder. It has an idea of itself as a great nation that remains unrecognised in the rest of the world, save of course amongst those who like ideologues and tyrants - no doubt like President Correa of Ecuador and Julian Assange. This is not to say that many of its people are anything other than friendly, intelligent, passionate and open minded. Until Russia embraces the rule of law concept though it will always have trials with outcomes like the one we have heard of today with three women pop singers imprisoned for two years for hooliganism for having sung an anti Putin song in a Church. Would these women have been charged with hooliganism if instead of Putin the subject of their song had been a  rebel Chetnyan leader? Most unlikely. I believe that most people in the UK would think it wrong to use a Church or other place of worship to make a political statement and I do not know the circumstances leading to the song having been performed in the Moscow Church but the imposition of a two year sentence is barbaric and can only have been done for one reason. To put the fear of God into others minded to protest against Putin. This is a further example of denial of free speech by this unfortunate Russian government. Critics, including journalists, of the regime or specific members of it have been murdered in the last few years not only in Russia itself but also outside; witness the fate of Mr Litvinenko in the UK despite the fact he had become a British citizen. Mr Putin and his followers believe that Russia is a special nation that deserves special respect. There can be little respect though for any country which behaves as it has done and any respect we gave it for having thrown off the Soviet yoke has been diminished as a result of this return to Soviet type behaviour. Putin thinks his bullying has succeeded against the Americans but this will change when Obama leaves office. No successor US President will continue Obama's Russian appeasement policy. Only weak men like Obama murder people like Osama bin Laden and give in to people like Putin. Strong men bring people like Osama bin Laden to trial and stand up to demagogues like Putin.                

Bastion Of Freedom Ecuador Style

Ecuador is a country which is best known for its Galapagos Islands although in pub quizzes the participants frequently give ownership to either Colombia or Peru. Like all South American countries Ecuador's politics are murky and involve coups d'etat from time to time. Its current leader is Rafael Correa who is an ally of the Iranian President Ahmadinejad and intends importing Iranian oil in defiance of the ban on Iranian oil set up by most countries in the western world. Ecuador tried to block  action against Gaddafi and is now trying to block action against Assad. Correa has a history of trying to imprison journalists who try to write things about him he finds offensive yet has decided today to grant Julian Assange asylum. Assange, a darling of the Guardian and the BBC, is the man who thinks he is above any law when it comes to obtaining and publishing secret US documents even though he believes his own secrets, including those relating to financial matters, are sacrosanct. One of the US secret or confidential documents he published was from Heather Hodges, the US Ambassador to Ecuador, in which she stated that Correa had appointed someone the position of police chief knowing that person was corrupt. This inevitably led to Hodges being expelled by Correa from Ecuador. With this history it is not surprising that Correa would grant Assange asylum since Correa clearly enjoys tweaking the tail of the United States and of its main ally the United Kingdom. The latter after all has had the audacity to allow one of its courts through proper legal process to decide to extradite Assange to Sweden to face investigation for alleged sex offences committed there. Furthermore the UK refuses to bow the knee to Correa's socialist friend Mrs Kirchner the leader of Argentina and her demand that the Falkland Islands be transferred to her country. Being of the left the ordinary rules of democracy and of due process do not of course apply to people like Assange and countries like Ecuador and Argentina. If there is a legal way in which we can storm the Ecuadoran embassy and pick up Assange then this should be done but if not we will just have to wait for him to stick his nose outside and arrest him. Fortunately the Ecuadoran embassy has no forecourt that would allow Assange to climb into a diplomatic car whilst on Ecuadoran territory. He has to cross the pavement outside the embassy first! It must not be forgotten that in entering the Ecuadoran embassy Assange broke the terms of his bail. How stupid of those like Ms Kahn to stand bail for a snake like Assange.

Enthusiasm Becomes Boris

Boris Johnson has given an interview to the Evening Standard in which he said the way to get business motoring in the UK is to cut taxes, cut regulation, create the infrastructure and get behind it (by which he presumably means that everything should be done to ensure that the new infrastructure is started without the usual delays and built as soon as possible). He also revealed plans for an elevated lanes for bicycles alongside the Overground tracks and was of the opinion Osborne was in favour of infrastructure projects like the Thames Estuary Airport but criticised inertia in the Government - a dig at the LibDems who have today come out against any new runway in the London area. Other infrastructure projects Boris wants undertaken include Crossrail 2, more river crossings and a massive house building programme. He also urged Cameron to stop pussyfooting around on the airport decision  (a reference to the delayed publication of the report into Britain's airports) and by which he presumably meant that Cameron should get on with things even if the LibDems object. The Evening Standard sadly failed to ask Boris what he would he do about Government spending and the deficit. If his proposals are for infrastructure projects to be paid for by the private sector then I agree with him 100% but if any significant taxpayer funding is required then he's barking up the wrong tree. It is also sad that he did not mention energy. We desperately need someone of his stature and vigour to take the argument about oil to the opposition. There are billions of untapped 'tight' oil reserves in the United States that due to new technology can now be extracted and which it is estimated will last for 200 years. There are similar sized reserves of tight oil in other parts of the world that are waiting to be extracted as well. All this will bring down the price of oil as the price of gas in the US has been brought down due to the extraction of shale gas. We could also enjoy a gas bonanza from our large shale gas fields in Lancashire. Let's get behind this and to hell with the bloody eco fascists who want to take us back to the dark ages.      

What An Irony

A few days ago Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote an article about what he calls the Great Recession and how it is turning into a life sentence. He believes the crisis started on 12th August 2007 when yields on 3 month US Treasury Bills crashed from 3.76% to 2.55% in two hours. This was the moment that investors became so scared that they came out of the money market and flooded into 3 month US Treasuries and thus dramatically bringing down the yield. He also believes that it was the Asian 'Savings Glut' that caused the credit bubble crisis. You can read his fascinating article here. Evans-Pritchard has written another fascinating article today about how Germany's shipping industry faces a number of bankruptcies as a result of a contraction in the container trade. 100 German ship funds are already bankrupt with a further 800 in difficulties. Germany apparently controls 40% of the world container shipping market but like the oldest British shipping company which has just gone into liquidation misjudged the shipping business cycle and over invested in new ships for the Chinese market. Vessel rates have fallen dramatically leaving a legacy of debt and a glut of ships. However as more and more ships find themselves on the market at knock down prices as a result of foreclosure or in order for their owners to pay off debt the best ones are being bought by guess who? The Greeks. You could not ask for a more intriguing result. It brings a smile to one's lips at the realisation that here is a way out for the Greeks from their horrific financial predicament. They could even afford to buy the ships if they were to pay for them in drachma! If the Greeks bought the ships in drachma they could then afford to undercut vessel rates to such an extent they would be able to take a greater percentage of the shipping market from the Germans. You can read the article here.     

Let The Phoenix Rise

There was much to admire about the Olympic Closing Ceremony but much that irritated too. It was too long and in parts self indulgent. It was a pity that in his first song George Michael sang flat. Did you guess who the hologram figure was? No neither did I. My daughter told me it was Freddie Mercury of Queen who died of aids. The words of Lennon's Imagine confirmed my view of the leftie bias of the show as did the words of one of Jessie J's songs but a lot of men could forgive her anything and her voice wasn't bad either. Whereas the words of these two songs were of a misguided philosophy the word Freedom in one song emblazoned around the stadium struck me as a deserved poke in the of those present from dictatorships and other autocrat run countries. The lighting and other visual and stage effects were brilliant and the extinguishment of the cauldron with the phoenix rising above were particularly moving. Did the phoenix represent this country or was it about something else? It should have been about the UK and in the context of the Games the incredible success of our athletes who in 1996 obtained 1 gold only. In all of this where were the Rolling Stones? They didn't feature in either the Opening or Closing Ceremonies or at the Diamond Jubilee and they are one of our greatest bands ever. Maybe I have missed the reason why but could it be because they will only perform for a fee? Charles Crawford has a good piece on the Closing Ceremony here and his reference to the EU is well made. John Mauldin whose Thoughts from the Frontline I subscribe to now believes that the euro crisis will lead to one of three disasters of equal significance. Either the euro will collapse or there will be some form of european union or the can will continue to be kicked down the road forever. I do not agree that these three disasters are of equal horror. You have to look at the one which will allow each country to heal itself again like the phoenix which means that the euro must be killed and each country go back to its own currency. It will certainly be painful but look at Iceland as the most recent example of how a bankrupt country can out itself back together again in only a remarkably short time. Three to five years.    

The UN Sees Some Sense

It is not often that the UN says or does anything worthy of praise. It has been at the forefront of the scandalous global warming scam through the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and thus it has come as a surprise that the UN is suggesting that the US gives up on using corn for biofuel and uses the corn for feed purposes instead. This request has been made because of the poor US corn crops this year as a result of the drought in the Midwest pushing up the price of corn by something like 34%. Is the beginning of realism in the climate change debate? Perhaps, but there is a long way to go. It is not that it is stupid to find other sources of energy that are more environmentally friendly but to lie about global warming and to pretend that wind farms are anything other than an expensive disaster that disfigure the land. Any politician that promotes wind power will eventually have egg all over his face including that darling of the BBC Alex Salmond who, according to Bishop Hill here, does not seem to understand maths. The BBC love wind farms and everything green so it was not a surprise this morning to be told by that great green giant Roger Harrabin on the Today programme this morning that the London Olympics have been the greenest Olympics to date but apparently they could have been even more green. Who cares? All we care about is that the Olympics have been a success in light of all the effort and treasure that has been put into it and as a Londoner as a result of the disruption to the town. We have not suffered the same disruption in the West of London as they have in the East but it was fascinating walking around Victoria Park this afternoon and seeing the display of 204 photographs of personalities from each country that is participating in the Games. It was also dispiriting to see a stand alongside the main path through the Park handing out free pamphlets and other blurb about the marvels of Islam. It is a free country though and the East End like the West End has increasing numbers of muslims living in our midst. Something we just have to get used to although we must ensure that the horrors of Sharia law are never accepted here. The Games have been a huge success and Charles Moore has written a brilliant article in the Telegraph today about how we should use this achievement, which you can read here.    

Let Them Eat Cake On A Bicycle

Do the French really think we cheated in the cycling events? Apparently 70% of those polled in France think so. Wonderful isn't it! How do we deal with this particular slight? Do we complain to the President of the EU, that bastion of fairness Mr Barroso, and ask him to intervene? I don't think so as he assuredly thinks the French are right and probably still believes in Descartes on the question of gravitational pull. He also no doubt thinks like all socialists that the sun shines out of Jean Jacques Rousseau's fundament. So no joy is likely to come from the EU. Should we complain to the head of the International Olympic Committee? Somehow I doubt the Committee will be much impressed being    an autocratic organisation that brooks no dissension - witness the way they have taken over London's roads, the prohibition against the use of the Olympic symbol without a licence, the fierceness with which they have defended their branding and so on. No, there will be no help there. But who needs help anyway? Certainly not the British who have stood on their own two feet for hundreds and hundreds of years. Apart from the little digs against the French, (a) from one member of the British cycling committee who in answer to a question posed by a member of the French cycling team about the legality of our equipment explained that the reason for our success was because our wheels were more perfectly round than theirs and, (b) from Cameron saying that British cycling success has driven the French so mad they are accusing us of cheating, we should cheerfully ignore the frogs. Let them eat cake, I say, and next time they want some help as they will when the euro collapses, as it will before the end of the year, let's put the cost of doing so the return of our ancient lands that they stole from us and if they wont agree let's leave the EU.    

French Post

Whilst in France over the weekend I read an article by one Alexandre Adler in Le Figaro. He made the same comments about the Olympics opening ceremony as I had made but in rather more detail and unlike me had come to the conclusion that it showed a country in decline. However when I think about it his view may be correct in the context of the NHS - the jury is still out whether the brave attempt by the Government to bring it screaming into the light of day will succeed or not. Adler lastly declared it was ridiculous for this country to want to reduce its involvement with the EU as we were needed to help out, presumably with the eurozone countries, and it was wrong of us to hold back. Either we're a 'decadent' country as Adler describes us and thus not worth knowing or we are a country that still has some positives and thus worth doing business with. He can't have it both ways and we cannot be criticised for staying out of the flawed euro project. Yes, we are in a hole and yes, our banks have become involved in illegal activities for which the perpetrators need to be prosecuted and if found guilty sent to prison. But no, our banks are not the only ones and it is frankly disgusting of the Americans to use what's happened to protect themselves from competition. The Americans like the French have always sought to protect their industries with harmful effects on world trade so we should not, I suppose, be surprised that they are playing the same old game. They are also trying to impose their foreign policy on us through the way they control our banks operating in the US. This can be a double edged sword since their foreign policy cannot be said to have been always successful nor to have avoided "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns" or unforeseen consequences whether foreseeable or not. In typical fashion the head of the New York State Department of Financial Services has made the most astonishing claims so it is will be a feast well worth watching when he is made to eat humble pie - always a difficult thing for a bragging American to do. I still don't get the point of including the NHS in the opening show and my view that it was inappropriate to include it has been strengthened by a case of nursing negligence in the Royal London hospital a day or so ago. A premature baby being cared for in the institution was mistakenly given milk expressed by another mother rather than the milk expressed by its own mother. The premature baby is now on antibiotics as the mother who expressed it is infected with thrush and candida. The mother of the premature baby has been asked if she will sue although she is under some pressure from the hospital not to do so. Despite the negligent nurse's apologies I think the mother should sue since it is quite unclear whether and what treatment the premature baby will require if she contracts either or both diseases. She may well have the whole of her life blighted by this negligence.      

Monti - A Lesson In Autocracy

It should not be surprising that Mario Monti, the unelected Prime Minister of Italy, stated that parliaments should be overridden in order that governments could introduce laws thought necessary by Ministers without interference from MPs. This is no doubt a view actively supported by many civil servants including those in the EU. It is certainly a view taken by many in our civil service and by certain politicians. Indeed it was a Labour MP, one Douglas Jay, who once infamously said "the man from Whitehall knows best". There are of course copious examples of where the man in Whitehall did not know best including the ERM fiasco and currently climate change. Hannan has an example of such democratic deficit in the EU here. Monti should resign immediately for his stupid anti democratic remark since if the EU is to survive it must restore (if it ever had it) its citizens' faith in its institutions through deeper democracy not less. This can only happen if the way EU citizens are ruled is changed to follow the Swiss democratic model whereby every time there is a law change the issue is put to a referendum. Without the introduction of such a system the EU must break up since even the Germans are now frustrated by its anti democratic ways as can be seen from Hannan's said post. Politicians have anyway sunk even lower in the minds of many of us for a variety of reasons one being as a result of the behaviour of the Lib Dems. Clegg was given the AV Referendum in exchange for supporting constituency boundary changes but because an unrelated piece of legislation is now not going to go ahead owing to a Tory back bench revolt he will not support the boundary changes. This is like the teacher who threatens to punish the whole class for the misdemeanours of one or two pupils. The electorate will remember this and vote accordingly. Cameron has quite rightly said he will push ahead with the boundary change vote. By doing so he has put Miliband in a bit of a spot. The current boundaries are demonstrably unfair and if Miliband decides the Labour party must vote against changing them he will be tarred with the unfairness brush but he does his party no favours for voting for the changes as to do so will have the effect of diminishing the number of safe Labour seats. Not by much it is true since PoliticalBetting here have calculated that even if the Tories are 2.2% ahead on votes they will still lose the next election. Will Miliband risk the Tories only being 2.2% ahead at the next election? The election is some way off and Miliband would have to be very brave to vote for boundary changes or so sure that he will win the next election come what may that he can afford to be seen to be in favour of fairness and generosity. I do not believe he will take the risk.    

French Sauce

Hollande was clearly stung when Cameron said we would roll out the red carpet for those French coming here to escape the new French socialist government's tax impositions. London already has over 400,000 French residents and is the fifth largest French town. Hollande couldn't wait to get his own back and duly did so when he was here to see his compatriots competing in the Games. With France third in the medal table he said he was grateful to the British for rolling out the red carpet for French athletes winning medals. Who will have the last laugh though, not on the medal front but on the more serious one, that of making a living without prohibitive taxes. All the betting is on France losing out. Hollande is reversing the retirement age back to 60, is imposing a 75% tax on high earners, is doubling the wealth tax (albeit for one year only), is imposing a tax on foreigners who own French properties and is introducing a financial transaction tax on companies headquartered in France. France is in a worse financial position than the UK and it is anticipated that data to be released in October will make it clear that Hollande's measures are making France's finances even worse. Not only are more French expected to come to work in London but that the headquarters of French companies will be moved here too. Cameron has welcomed the French arrivals, will Boris Johnson welcome them too? I'm sure he will as some of them will have voted for him in the Mayoral elections. With Cameron's star sinking and Boris's rising will we see the latter elected the new Tory leader in time for the election? Only if Cameron fails both to get his act together this summer and to come out fighting in September with Tory ideas that involve cuts on employment regulations, taxes, european red tape and government spending. In this regard it will be interesting to see what the forthcoming ministerial shuffle brings. Cameron has already made a start on cutting government staff but needs to be ruthless with the likes of Ed Davey who has increased the number of employees working for his department. Davey needs to be sacked and replaced by a climate change sceptic. On the other hand Cameron needs to support Francis Maude who wants to modernise the Civil Service and make it more accountable. This is a thoroughly good idea as it must be right that any civil servant who obstructs the implementation of a policy can be sacked.        

Vertically Challenged Politicians

Funny isn't it that so many politicians are vertically challenged. This is particularly noticeable in both Sarkozy and Hollande. Is this something to do with Frenchmen or is it because the French like the Napoleonic stature of their statesmen? Putin is another case in point but then the Russians have traditionally had an odd relationship with the French now made more complex by their fear of the USA. All these short leaders wanting to impose their will on the rest of us in reaction to their lack of stature. No doubt a psychiatrist can explain what this is all about but it is somewhat worrying. I wonder how tall Hitler was? I also wonder how tall Draghi, the ECB CEO, is? Does he have a Napoleon complex too? It certainly seems that way if you listen to the incredible remarks he's made about doing all that needs to be done to save the euro. What he has said is just unbelievably deceitful as there is no way the ECB can raise the wherewithal from Germany and the other euro surplus countries to support bailouts for Spain, Italy and France. The ECB doesn't even have enough money to bail out Spain. It will only have €500 billion by mid 2014 whereas if Spain goes down the tubes it will need up to €650 billion to survive. This is where the deceit comes in. Where is the ECB going to find that kind of money? From the Germans? Most unlikely even if the Germans are the only ones to have benefited from the euro by reducing the cost to the consumer of their cars. Yet despite the obvious spin the markets rallied on hearing Draghi's remarks.They must be mad or overcome by wishful thinking. There is no way the euro can survive and only poor deluded, extremist europhiles can say otherwise. Even a majority of Germans now want out of the euro and no doubt this majority will grow in size the longer the crisis goes on and despite the bullshit propagated at the latest Fathom Consulting quarterly Monetary Policy Forum that things will be worse for all if the euro does not survive. The boil caused by the euro crisis can only get better once it has been lanced.    

Olympics Opening Ceremony

The ‘show’ was quirky to say the least of it. True it celebrated not only an idyllic kind of country in the starting bucolic scenes but also the power of the nation through the industrial revolution but it also celebrated some odd things like CND, the suffragettes and the NHS. I think I get the point about the suffragettes i.e. that we are a country that sometimes needs to be brought kicking and screaming into the modern day but the NHS? Was the point to celebrate our caring nature or a statement that big Government works? Either way it was inappropriate. As to CND  it was never more than a side show and mostly thought of as loony. The pop music section was far too long and the glorification of multiculturalism was not only embarrassingly bad but overdone. The overall theme of the ceremony took some working out and will have been confusing for many of our visitors but there was no doubting its vibrancy and panache through the use of clever lighting and other stage sets. The most fun bits were HM The Queen doing her Bond bit and Mr Bean. I don’t go along completely with what Tory MP Aidan Burley has said but he has a point about the show's leftie bent. The ceremony definitely had a socialist message about it as acknowledged by Alistair Campbell of WMD fame (for example CND and the representation of Mrs Thatcher as a witch) which is a pity since the show should have been inclusive and not used to poke a stick in the eyes of many of us. It is an even greater pity that it was so inward looking, so parochial and that events of truly global significance like the Magna Carta were missed out. For a view of this country's influence on the world, apart from our influence on sport so well captured by Mr Rogge in his speech, one only had to watch the competing nations as they came into the Arena and count the number of them who either had been or are still British colonies. As at the close of day 3 the whole shebang seems to be going rather well but the dictatorial manner exercised in these Games from the use of the Olympic logo to lanes on the roads for the exclusive use of the Olympic family and the press leaves a very nasty taste in the mouth. The lanes are hardly necessary as traffic in London today is down to weekend congestion levels, that is congestion free in the areas I've been driving. London is always quieter over the school summer holidays but this year a lot more seem to have left the capital for the two weeks of the Games rather than later in August. A wise decision. 

Better Romney Than Obama In November

I agree 100% with what Hannan has said in his blog post today about Mitt Romney. You can read it here. Mitt Romney is not the bogeyman the British media are making him out to be. The media reflects not only the embarrassment we feel about those who are members of odd religious sects but also the idea that we must support someone like Obama in order to prove the view we have of ourselves as colour blind. This embarrassment and view of ourselves affects those from right and left of the political spectrum and leads us into patronising the likes of Obama by forgiving errors that we would never have forgiven in say Bush. Obama, deep down, is not a friend of this country and the removal of the bust of Churchill from his office, although a slight thing, is a manifestation of that feeling he has about us. Frankly Obama is a big head made bigger by the ridiculous Noble prize given to him at the beginning of his Presidency and by all the flattery heaped on him simply because he is a black man and the first man of that skin to be elected President of the most powerful country in the world. The praise for his election should be heaped on those that voted for him, not on the man himself. He cannot be praised for many of his policies however, not on the economy, nor on the way he has handled the Russians and, by murdering bin Laden, neither on the issue of the rule of law - an anglo-saxon concept if ever there was one. His healthcare bill leaves a lot to be desired too. Indeed he will leave office with the security of the world in a worse position than when he became President. Putin's Russia is a loose cannon as he takes his country back to confrontational politics with the West. Obama has failed to give Israel the support it deserves as the only Western type democracy in the Middle East and instead given succour to the ambitions of Iran. Romney will be far better equipped to look after world security and to bring back economic growth to the USA and eventually to the world. It is in our interest that Romney becomes the next President and shame on us if, because he has an oddball religion or for some other quirky reason, we fail to support him in November's election.              

Should Cameron Go?

Osborne has had an unsurprising bashing in the press today. He is said to be a brilliant political strategist but that claim is now clearly seen as just hype or spin. If he had been such a clever strategist he would have understood better the dangers of the policies he has pursued, forget the U-Turns which are merely tactical errors and which he can easily surmount, and prepared us for the possible bad news that might well come our way and which indeed have arrived. Neither Osborne nor Cameron come across as passionate. That is possibly not a failure in a Chancellor but becomes one when the Prime Minister is lacking in that regard too. That is why Boris Johnson is popular because one senses that he has real feelings about certain issues rather than ones manufactured by focus groups. What do Cameron and Osborne truly believe in? Why don't they have the confidence to stand up and be counted? Why are they always looking over their shoulders at the Lib Dems and floating voters and poking their natural supporters in the eye? On the one occasion Cameron was seen, possibly in error, as standing up for Britain's interests at the December EU summit his stock went up hugely. Is it too late for him to make a come back? Is it too late for Osborne to come back too? Neither can do himself any harm by at least openly fighting for his job. They should forget about focus groups and instead take the advice offered to them today by Allister Heath in his own paper here and in the Telegraph here as well as by Alistair Thompson here. Cameron and Osborne must spend the summer planning on how to take back the initiative and to hell with the Lib Dems. If they fail then they will have to go and I for one shall support those MPs prepared to wield the knife against Cameron. Labour have an uncharismatic, awkward, lightweight leader. To be beaten by him would be unpardonable but that is what is likely to happen if Cameron fails to get his act together by the autumn and the Tories then fail to replace him.     

Decline And Fall?

The shocking 0.7% decline in our GDP will hopefully have the effect of a wake up call on our government and impel them to do the right things as a matter of urgency. Listening to Osborne though I'm not sure it will. He talked about neither increasing our debt or deficit but insisted we undertake more infrastructure projects. He did not say how they were to be financed though. If such infrastructure projects are to be financed by the private sector then I am wholeheartedly in favour but how is that going to happen since banks still seem reluctant to provide loans. In order to encourage such projects Osborne would have to cut government spending harder and faster and reduce taxes. He should use the new figures as a springboard to do just that but he won't as the Treasury, having gambled and lost whilst Brown was in control, has lost all confidence in itself. This rather suggests that those in the Treasury when Brown was there should be sacked and replaced by economists of the Austrian school. There are some commentators though who seem to think the figures for the second quarter will be revised to show a less steep decline. Andrew Sentance on Jeff Randall Live this evening is clearly one of them as he felt that realistically there will be some growth in the current quarter helped perhaps by the Olympics and the fact that inflation is coming under control although he warned that we would be affected by difficult world growth. Certainly tied as we are to the eurozone the problems it is facing can only have a bad effect on us. Spain is undoubtedly going to need to be bailed out and then the spotlight will shift to Italy with France filling Italy's spot. Mr Hollande is making matters worse for France by reducing the retirement age from 62 to 60 and increasing taxation on the wealth producers. It is perhaps not surprising though that Ed Miliband has applauded Mr Hollande's economics. We have to pray that we do not have a socialist government again at least until our finances have been sorted out. This will take long enough for the present lot to do, probably at least another seven years. Miliband's lot with their socialist economics will however leave us in a mess for decades.