Osborne Refuse to Dole Out €31bn to Eurozone

Paul Donovan of UBS on Jeff Randall Live this evening stated that the EU needed to end its isolation from the UK. Sounds like a good idea to me and one which the likes of Germany would agree with since the German Foreign Minister spoke today of the need for his country to be part of a european project that we were a part of in order to cope with its past. I can understand that and would be happy to be part of a european project so long as that project was about free trade rather than the protectionism encapsulated in the CAP and the common fisheries policy. The first makes food expensive and the second destroys our fish stocks. We should say 'no' more often since after the orgy of abuse against us and attempts to make us the scapegoat for the failure of the eurozone members to solve the euro crisis the other EU members have never been so nice to us - apart of course from France. We have now said we will not contribute €31bn to the euro bail out fund which for dodgy legal reasons has to be paid to the IMF which will then pass it on to the eurozone countries which need it. Again the language against us is intemperate but we had made it clear all along that whereas we were happy to increase our sub to the IMF we would only do so if it were for the benefit of IMF members generally and not only or specifically to eurozone members. Funny isn't it that euroland fails to understand that when we make to statements we mean them but saying no on this second occasion may take longer to heal the rift although other EU countries may well be emboldened to follow a similar line. I have never understood why we should pay anything towards euro crisis suffering eurozone member countries when we warned of the consequences of joining the euro and when there was a solution at hand namely for Germany and the other strong euro economies to help Greece and perhaps Portugal (Dan Morris of JP Morgan thinks the fund being put together is far from enough and that . Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has a good blog on this here. 

A Funny Thing Happened at the EU Summit

I hear from someone with good Downing Street intelligence that at last week's EU summit Cameron had all other 8 non eurozone countries ready to say 'no' to the Merkozy proposal but that van Rompuy persuaded them after hours of debate to change tack as to do so would satisfy the markets that something was being done to save the euro and furthermore would result in the talks concluding within probably an hour but certainly in no longer than two hours. Cameron pleaded with the other 8 to stand firm with him as the markets would not be taken in for a moment and saying he would vote no anyway. Cameron was quite right about the markets but why has this story not been reported by the media? My guess is that Cameron does not want to embarrass the other 8 particularly as several of them now seem to be back tracking from the qualified 'yes' they gave to the Merkozy plan. Clegg's attitude to the events of last week get curiouser and curiouser. First he says he supports Cameron, then he says Cameron got it wrong and has left us a pygmy amongst other nations, isolated and without influence and now it seems he is saying we still have influence over the EU agenda and it is significant that we have been given observer status at talks about fiscal union. Clegg is clearly a hard man to pin down, rather like the Vicar of Bray. Perhaps the way the French have behaved has persuaded him that even LibDems would agree with normal people that the French need taking down a peg or two. Perhaps he is struck by the fact of Mrs Merkel calling Cameron since the events of last week in what is understood to be a friendly exchange. Clegg presumably knows the detail of what was discussed between Merkel and Cameron and realises things are not as bad as he thought them to be and that he went too far with his remarks on the Marr show last Sunday. Whatever, Clegg has demonstrated his irrelevance.  

Play Up! Play Up! And Play The Game!

The euro crisis descends into farce and will shortly reach its end. The so called plan evolved by Merkozy last week is no plan to save the euro. It is a plan for the future governance of those members of the EU who think there is benefit in joining a half cocked fiscal union. Already it is no longer 26 for and 1 against. Those against are growing as the politicians of those members now harbouring doubts realise that they might find it difficult if not impossible to sell the loss of sovereignty to their electors that a fiscal union implies, even a half cocked one. Cameron's stand against the nonsense of a fiscal union (let's believe that that was what he was doing in Brussels in the early hours of Friday last week) is shown to be more prescient as each day goes by. Even van Rompuy has realised that the madcap scheme will founder unless Cameron is seen to be involved in trying to get it off the ground. That can be the only reason why Cameron has been asked to attend the deliberations of the EU on the whole fiscal union subject. Cameron should make his attendance conditional on our getting what we want by way of treaty change and, it being too late now to save the euro at least in its present form, that for all our sakes an orderly wind up be agreed urgently. Maybe it is still possible for the euro to be split into two with France and the southern european states in eurosud and Germany and the northern countries in euronord. If not each country will have to return to its own currency. Cameron at the moment has centre stage (given to him in particular by the antics of Sarkozy, Noyer and Baroin) and has a chance in a lifetime to become a world  statesman of stature if he pursues the logic of what he's started and what this country wants. Clearly the europeans are crying out for the leadership that the two big beasts, Merkel and Sarkozy, have singularly failed to give them. Cameron must now come to the crease. He must play up, play up and play the game.  

French Mustard

The French are really quite extraordinary. Not only does Sarkozy call our Prime Minister an 'obstinate kid' if you read the papers or a 'petulant child' if you listen to the BBC but now the head of the Banque de France is saying that France's rating should not be down graded but that ours should be instead. What else are they going to throw at us? I know that earlier this year they were complaining how unfair our victory over them at Agincourt was as we had used weapons of mass destruction, i.e. longbows, that had apparently been ruled illegal by the medieval version of the European Court of Human Rights or something. As usual the French are exercising their ancient right of special pleading which of course they have always done whenever they have felt hard done by. Nobody likes being downgraded but the thing no Englishman has ever understood is why the French believe themselves to be so special. Are they cleverer than we are? Are they more inventive than we are, more cultured, more intellectual, better dressed, better educated, etc? Not really, if we're honest, although I have to admit I would not know how to measure these things. If we were to take the number of Nobel Laureates as a measure the French would lose. They have 58 and we have 120 - over twice as many as they have. This is a ridiculous comparison though and who cares other than the touchy French as demonstrated by the undiplomatic statement of that low flying frog about Cameron and the petulant remark by the head of the Banque de France. Perhaps it is our indifference to them that makes them unhappy with us. Perhaps it is because we look out to the world whereas they only look out of their backyard. Perhaps it is our easy going manner. Perhaps it is because we share a common heritage with the anglosphere which is of greater significance than the heritage they share with the francosphere. Whatever it is it is bemusing or would be if you wanted to waste time worrying about it. If it's any consolation to them we are still happy to drink their wine.

Better Isolation Than Integration

It is always interesting to know what our critics in the EU think of us. Not much it seems, certainly not after Cameron's refusal to play the Merkozy tune last week. If that pompous, arrogant, idiot Verhofstadt, MEP and head cheese of the Liberals in the joke European Parliament (a perfect partner for Huhne), is anything to go by we are to be punished for Cameron's action. Verhostadt's reaction just goes to confirm the view held by many Britons that the continent is governed by people who prefer rule by an elitist clique rather than by democratic mandate. The ultimate evidence supporting this view is the way the EU elite has forced Italy and Greece to replace their governments with an unelected council which of course reflects the way the EU governing body is itself constituted. Perhaps that is why the EU is disliked so much in this country on those occasions when people are forced to think about it and at other times just dismissed from the people's mind. The EU elite think we are a bunch of coarse vulgarians. Maybe they are right but so what. At least we are democratic vulgarians who believe in the rule of law. Having only been around for less than 7 decades in their current form it is uncertain how much the continentals believe in the rule of law. I would prefer a country where everything is possible rather than one where nothing is possible unless you are in some way attached to the elite. An American friend who has lived all of his adult life outside the United States and most of it in France but with stretches in the UK and other places has returned again from France to live in London. He had been living in La France Profonde and felt isolated there but did not want to live in Paris because Paris is a closed, non-cosmopolitan city and he prefers the worldliness of London. So much therefore for the insults thrown at us by the likes of Verhofstadt. Such insults reveal not only their hatred for this country but also their jealousy. Members of this elite seem to hate their own countries too. Are their own countries so awful that they have to deny them? Verhofstadt comes from that unnatural country Belgium so I suppose one can understand his desire to be a citizen of anywhere else.

Praise Where It's Due

At the time I would usually be thinking about writing a blog I was on the way to the Western Eye Hospital in Marylebone late yesterday afternoon to find out what was wrong with my right eye. On arrival I was walking to the receptionist's desk behind a little old lady when I and the little old lady, two feet away from the desk, were overtaken by a young woman with a friend running to get ahead of us. I told the young lady to get back in line and although she most unwillingly let the little old lady be dealt with first she certainly was not going to allow me to do likewise. Despite this irritating introduction to the Western Eye Hospital the rest of the experience was surprisingly easy. The receptionist in the 24/7 A&E clinic told me that I was lucky as there were so few people waiting to be seen.  I had to wait about 20 minutes to see a nurse who took the details and gave me drops. I then waited about 40 minutes to see the doctor who spent some time examining my eyes and who found a tear in the right eye's retina. He got his superior to have a look to see if he had made a correct diagnosis. They carried out one or two other tests and got me to sign a waiver for the laser procedure they wanted to carry out. There was then another 20 minute wait before the senior of the two doctors took me into a treatment room and lasered my retina around the tear. I have to go back in a week's time to get the all clear. All in all I was at the hospital about 2 hours forty minutes which passed quickly enough as I had taken a good book to read. No wonder a good percentage of those in the clinic were from overseas one of whom was absolutely amazed that she did not have to pay anything for the treatment she had received. "It was an emergency," the receptionist said.    

Euro Crisis? What Euro Crisis?

I had thought the EU Summit was to sort out the euro crisis but nothing was done to do so. Everything that was proposed is for the future. The euro is burning and yet those great captains Merkel and Sarkozy, who rule the eurozone, fiddle. Why is that not a surprise. It speaks volumes of the quality of the people involved. Not only of Merkel and Sarkozy but of the other EU member leaders too as well as of their advisers and of course of the eurocrats. They are acting like rabbits caught in the headlights, frozen into inaction. All they can do is to recite the mantra of Monnet or of whichever of the nuts it was who dictated that each crisis in the EU should be used to advance the integration of its members into another country called Europe. Their idea of fiscal union is to ensure that each country has the same tax rates etc. unlike the USA where each state has its own tax regime with a federal tax rate set by the federal government. Janet Daley has a good take on this point in the Telegraph here. By trying to set up a fiscal union where everything is controlled from Brussels by unelected eurocrats the europeans show their distrust of democracy. They are proposing a soviet style of government that I fail to understand how the more democratic countries in the EU are prepared to sign up to. Perhaps in the last analysis, when the full details of the fiscal union become clear, they wont. As for France and Germany, with their historical predilection for dictatorship, it is no surprise at all that they are prepared to propose such an undemocratic construct. Of course the fun will come when they have to comply with their own rules, for example the 3% of GDP deficit limit. We have been there before when they excused themselves from so doing    shortly after the euro was introduced. This is a mess we will be far better out of and thanks to Cameron we now have the opportunity to change our relationship with the EU. Not of course that Clegg and the LibDems are happy with what happened. Indeed it took Clegg only a day to change his tune from saying that he and Cameron had discussed the tactics to be taken at the Summit to complaining that Cameron blew the negotiations. Does Clegg want the financial transaction tax that Merkozy were insisting on? Talking of which it seems that Merkozy agreed that it would not be imposed on Ireland so the inference is that Merkozy don't really care one way or the other about the tax but that they were determined to make the UK the scapegoat for their own inadequacies in solving the euro crisis.

The Today Programme

I listened to the Today programme this morning and yet again found it in breach of its charter. The BBC is supposed to be impartial but odd isn't it that they interviewed in friendly fashion two europhiles, namely the idiotic editor of the Financial Times and the delusional Lord Heseltine. Heseltine made a reference to Churchill encouraging a United States of Europe to be set up but failed to mention that in his 1946 speech on the United States of Europe Churchill was not advocating UK membership. Heseltine implied that Churchill had done so though. It is quite clear from the speech that Churchill had done no such thing and saw our role as a sponsor of the United States of Europe alongside the Commonwealth, the United States of America and, he hoped, the Soviet Union. See the speech here. The BBC failed to point this out. The BBC then interviewed Osborne which as usual when it comes to a Tory was undertaken with maximum prejudice. At one point Osborne was put off his stride although he recovered later. Try complaining to the BBC about their systemic bias and all you get after  a week or two is some supercilious, dismissive reply. The attitude is appalling and it is impossible to understand why the government doesn't cut the institution down to size. Readers of this blog will know that I think the BBC should be abolished or that at least it should be split up so that part can continue as it is and the other part can be populated by those with a different political bias so that impartiality can be achieved that way. Antony Jay has written about cutting down the BBC in his foreword to Christopher Booker's report for the Global Warming Policy Foundation which foreword you can read in full in James Delingpole's Telegraph blog here.    

3 Cheers for Cameron

I have been critical of Cameron on a number of issues but to my relief and amazement he has come up trumps on the EU. This is a defining moment for him and one which the LibDems have to go along with or be annihilated in an election Cameron will call if the LibDems were to jump ship. Merkozy knew their insistence on castrating the City was a red line in the sand for us, Osborne had made this perfectly clear to them some weeks ago. So they had us lined up as the whipping boy from the off and for once our people sussed this out and prepared their ground accordingly. Cameron asked for the minimum he could ask for by way of protection for the City without creating an impossible position for the government back home.Merkozy clearly thought they had an opportunity either to crush us into submission or to get rid of us.  A win win situation as they saw it. They probably thought though on balance that Cameron would give in but they underestimated him. They will in due course come to regret their coup when we grow and they don't, when they are trapped in a currency that their so called fiscal union will not save and when it all comes to a disastrous end. A Swiss friend believes that in order for Europe to be anything in this world it must become a real country so that it can compete with not only the US but also the BRIC blocs. He is in favour of proper fiscal union, namely one treasury, one central bank and one government and believes that what Merkozy now propose is the next step on the way to a federal europe. I fear he will be disappointed as there are other countries who will not want to be subsumed into a Franco-German hegemony. The UK could never attach itself to such an enterprise. The UK longs for greater free trade and freedom from the CAP and the Common Fisheries Policy. If it needs to join an economic group it needs to look to like minded countries in the anglosphere. Let's not forget that our history in Europe grates somewhat with europeans particularly as some of us cannot but help remember it and allow it to permeate our attitude towards them. Merkozy basically dislike us for that attitude as they cannot treat us quite like the other members of the EU. Who can blame them but hey, who can blame us.

2485 Year Old Tree Rings and the Euro

The north wind doth blow and we shall have snow and what will poor Robin do then poor thing. The likelihood is he'll claim it's climate change of a man made kind but if he read Bishop Hill's blog yesterday here he might think differently about it. Bishop Hill refers to the Chinese Science Bulletin which has carried out an examination of tree rings for the past 2485 years taken from the Tibetan Plateau which appear to indicate that changes in climate are associated with solar activity which greatly affects the temperature and that cold intervals corresponded to sunspot minimums. How you date the tree rings I'm not quite sure but imagine fossilised trees must be involved. It is to be hoped that the research carried out by the Chinese is now taken into account in deciding our energy policy. best of all by abandoning it altogether. I have my doubts what with the likes of the idiotic Huhne in charge but surely there must be a review of policy in the near future what with windmills exploding in these hard windy times. It is difficult to exaggerate winds of 165mph but not difficult to exaggerate the what will befall us all if the euro collapses certainly not for politicians of the quality of Merkozy and the likes of van Rompuy and Barroso. It is difficult to believe anything they say and so one is left with the distinct impression that they doth protest too much and for their on self aggrandisement. It is increasingly clear that euro collapse will be tough in the short but that within two or three years thereafter we will be growing again. To continue with the euro will be to continue living in an unremittingly bleak world for longer and which can only end in bust anyway. Look at how well and quickly the UK recovered when we came out of the ERM. Look at how well Iceland is doing three years after its devaluation.

Contagion

Cameron had his feet held to the fire at PMQs today on the EU question and waffled badly. Pressure is mounting outside Parliament too with Boris now saying that any Treaty change either has to be vetoed or put to a referendum. Admittedly being in a coalition with a bunch of Europhile UK haters makes Cameron's job more difficult but for that very reason it must make sense to act like Pontius Pilot and wash his hands of any decision which would rile either the LibDems or the Eurosceptics and instead put the issue to the people in a referendum. The LibDems would not dare leave the coalition because Cameron allows a referendum to be held as they would be tainted for years afterwards as undemocratic particularly as the Conservatives allowed the LibDems a referendum on the AV question. Cameron may find himself unpopular with his EU colleagues for holding a referendum but so what. We know their attachment to democracy - we only have to look at the governments of Greece and Italy to remind ourselves how shallow democracy beats in the German and French breasts. Frightening. It is therefore good to see that Berlusconi's party is not prepared to vote for some of the austerity measures that Monti's government is proposing. As Dan Hannan says here by trying to sort out Greece's problems the eurozone has taken them over when it would have been more sensible to push Greece out of the euro and leave it to settle its own problems. Ironically the contagion the eurozone feared would not have happened if the pus of Greece had been cut out but is happening now by the eurozone having clasped Greece to its bosom. Fiscal union would work if it is proper fiscal union of the US kind. The kind of semi fiscal union proposed for the eurozone will be a disaster waiting to happen.       

Where is the Referendum

Iain Martin had a most interesting article in the Telegraph this morning, which you can read here. Although I think there is something in his assertion that Cameron is like Baldwin I think he is more like Macmillan. Macmillan was a good manager but believed the prevailing defeatist sentiment of the time that our great days were over and thus we had to accept gentle decline including over powerful trades unions, dispirited management, the welfare state and minimal ambition. There are of course differences and Cameron must take full marks for going ahead with the changes to the welfare state, education, policing and the local authorities. The disappointments include the economy where the deficit reduction is not aggressive enough and there are no tax cuts to encourage growth, the BBC which is to remain untouched in all its socialist glory, the NHS reforms which have been watered down and of course the EU where there is to be no referendum. I have no objection to a good manager, there are few of them in any government as our parlous state confirms, but the UK deserves more than that. We deserve a government with vision for our future, a government which treats its voters as adults rather than as idiots, a government which will set out all the arguments for the things it wants to do and is not afraid to put the issues to a vote. In other words a government that knows what we need out of the EU, which will tell the EU what our needs are if we are to remain a member, to walk away from it if we do not get what we want and to seek the authority in a referendum of the people to walk away. It won't happen of course and we shall drift gently further downwards until we get another Thatcher. Another Thatcher is not guaranteed though. So much better to bite the bullet and for Cameron to get on with the job himself.  

There is a Tide .....

Merkel and Sarkozy have had their little chat in Paris today which has failed yet again to deal with the euro problem and seems to have done little even to address the symptoms of sovereign debt and lack of banking liquidity. The rabbit they will produce from the hat on Friday at the EU summit meeting will be one suffering from myxomatosis which will survive at best say into the middle of January before the markets bury it. Germany and France are now quite openly running the show and as far as I can see we are in the humiliating position of being on the sidelines where matters that concern us are discussed and agreed behind our backs. That this country, which has saved Europe on various occasions, should be shunted into the twilight zone with little say in how the cosy club is run and yet is expected to pay for the privilege is shameful.  We have absolutely no need to be a member of an uncompetitive, rule ridden block and the next time the Americans ask 'who do we contact when we want a European response?' we should respond 'not us, for God's sake. We'll give you an answer though about how we feel on the subject if you want it.' "There is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood leads on to fortune; omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat, and we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures." Perhaps Cameron will baulk at taking advice from Brutus but the advice was good even if the fortune of which Brutus was talking involved acting in a manner rather more extreme than I am contemplating.  

Cameron's Moral Imperative

There were a couple of things which struck me particularly about the Charles Moore interview of Delors in yesterday's Telegraph. One was the comment that Britain, though not in the euro and thus not sharing the burden is just as embarrassed as the Europeans by the financial crisis. I would be astounded that we feel in the least embarrassed about the euro problem as we warned of the downside at the time it was being contemplated. So why would we be embarrassed? Delors obviously thinks we should be. The other thing that struck me was his self regard, "I think for Mme Thatcher I was a curious personage: a Frenchman, a Catholic, an intellectual, a socialist " as if she was in some way in awe of him and his superior background. Clearly he knew nothing of Mrs Thatcher and her earlier life in which she would have met Frenchmen, catholics, intellectuals and socialists and dealt with them all just the same. What a snobbish, pompous, egotistical little man and what damage he has done. He denies the euro would have been a failure if all his strictures about how it should have been set up had been followed but he would say that wouldn't he. Proper fiscal union is never going to happen so long as the EU is a group of separate states and it will never be more than that. Thus all the fiddling going on now is not going to solve the problem, which is the euro itself. The problem can only be solved if the euro is replaced by each state's own currency. Peter Oborne in an article for the Telegraph on Friday thinks that Cameron has a great dilemma in that either he does everything he can to help the euro survive, at least for now, and risks the wrath of his party's eurosceptics or he goes along with his eurosceptics and risks the wrath of the EU leaders and Obama. There is no dilemma. He has do do what is right for the UK. You don't jump into the water with a drowning man unless you know you can rescue him without drowning yourself. The euro is going to sink anyway so the only moral choice Cameron can make is to announce a referendum to withdraw from the EU, the eurozone members of which  have demonstrated beyond a peradventure that they are a bunch of losers.      

Tricolore

Political correctness has gone too far. The fuss over the remarks made by Clarkson about the striking Civil Servants are not only offensive but another nail in the coffin of freedom of speech. The Leveson Inquiry is fast becoming another nail in that coffin too. The odious Alistair Campbell, who many think was the cause of the death of Dr David Kelly, screamed when supposedly the press had underhandedly got hold of his evidence to the Inquiry and published it before he was due to present it - the main 'publisher' being Guido Fawkes. Leveson supported Campbell and ordered Guido Fawkes to appear before him to give an explanation of this dastardly deed. It then came to light that Campbell had sent copies of the draft to a number of people including journalists. Guido Fawkes was then told his presence was no longer required. This though did not stop Leveson from issuing some kind of gagging order against Guido Fawkes about the whole affair. Why? To save embarrassment? We should know, it is a question of public interest. These gagging orders have to go and whilst they're at it the laws of libel need changing so that all that can be awarded to the claimant is costs and a nominal sum - no more of the large damages awards.

Talking about odious people, Jacques Delors has been in the news today giving an interview to the Telegraph. Apparently he now admits that when we pointed out at the euro's inception that a currency without a state would be unstable we were right. The view over coffee this morning at the Golf Club was that we must leave the EU as we can no longer remain a party to an entity that has such different views from ourselves on free trade and competition. There was a desire to have an arrangement with the EU similar to the Swiss and to join an anglosphere free trade area as well. If the EU were to impose tariffs on us though by way of some form of punishment we should immediately impose huge tariffs on both the import of German cars and French wine.

One of the Golf Club members had just come back from India where he had been with a European Export Association. He found the Germans were the undeniable stars in the particular export field the Association supports. Another member who works in the defence industry though was not at all impressed by the export skills of the Germans. His company has been buying certain parts from Germany to incorporate in their products, a number of which they build for stock. My friend's firm ABC now has to have the parts made in China as the Germans require end user certificates from the ultimate customer before they will sell their parts to ABC. Not surprisingly when building the products for stock ABC has no idea who the end user is going to be.    
 

Unconscious Irony?

This whole euro business is becoming a farce. Mrs Merkel is reported as saying a treaty change is required to enable the imposition of a european debt brake and for EU institutions to be suitably equipped with powers so that rules can be enforced and fines imposed if they are not complied with. This clearly involves the loss of national control over its own economy by each member of the eurozone. France on the other hand seems to be saying that it will be the governments of each member which will negotiate the terms of fiscal union, decide how it is to operate thereafter and how it is to be policed, that any other solution would be undemocratic. In other words the Germans and the French are far apart on this issue. Whether France's stance would require a treaty change I'm not sure but there are those who claim that the current euro crisis could be solved simply by the ECB printing money, that the ECB is not constrained in any way from doing so and that although fiscal union thereafter makes sense there is no need to set it up now to solve the crisis. Fiscal union could therefore be put in place at other than breakneck speed. See for example Ambrose Evans-Pritchard's article here. In the meantime certain Central Banks have entered the fray to offset the inter bank lending squeeze caused by the euro crisis and which was one of the symptoms of the global credit crunch that began in 2007. Simon Miller has written an interesting article on this point in The Commentator here. It is the view of many, including myself, that Germany has done well out of the euro as the euro allowed it to sell its cars at a lower price than it would have done if it had stuck with the D-mark. This economic advantage for Germany has resulted in economic disaster for the southern countries of the EU and Germany should thus be prepared to do something to help them. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard doesn't agree with this although I do see the sense of and agree with his argument that Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and Finland should leave the euro - see his argument here. With the current euro fiasco, from which none other than the eurosceptics come out well, it is curious timing to say the least of it that the ECB would launch a patronising video in praise of the euro. Unconscious irony or what? You can view the video on Daniel Hannan's blog here.   

The Strike

The greatest strike since the General Strike did not materialise and has been a damp squib. What a waste of time for those who went on strike and the rest of us although buses, the underground and trains were all working perfectly well. The only evidence of a strike that I saw were two young females with strike stickers on their jackets, schoolchildren and their mothers on the bus going out to lunch and an open top bus with union flags belting out music and only ten people on board. The strike was a token effort since most people know that the gold plated pensions of those working in the public sector simply cannot be justified and are grossly unfair on the rest of us. Miliband failed yet again at PMQs. You would have thought his union supporters would have kept him informed about the meetings they were having with the government. They had not told him a meeting had been held yesterday, that another was planned for tomorrow and another for Friday. He was left flat footed having accused the government of not having had a meeting since 4 November. The strike has probably done the unions no favours particularly as it came a day after the Autumn Statement. The latter has left many of us angry about the euro and the stupidity of those who brought it into existence, angry with the previous administration for the debt mountain they created and worried about how we are going to survive the retrenchment that is going to last for at least 6 years. On reflection I think I was a bit hard on Osborne yesterday. He has done some things with which I disagree but he has also done some brave things including a reduction in the civil service back to a more manageable size. The number of ministers also needs to be reduced to a more manageable size - the current number arose because governments always like to keep their supporters close in order to gag them. In this so called age of transparency it should be a point of honour to allow much more discretion to backbenchers. There will be less of them anyway after the next election as by then the number of MPs will have been reduced by 50.

The Autumn Statement

Whilst he was at it Osborne could have included the upgrade of the A21 to a dual carriageway for its entire length to bring greater prosperity to the South East corner of England. Although I suspect politically the Autumn Statement was a success I doubt it will be so from an economic point of view. It takes a gamble on the OBR's figures on growth being correct whereas on each occasion so far they have been wildly optimistic. Apart from hoping growth will be enough to provide the money to pay for his stimulants Osborne is to increase the bank levy. He is to help pensioners, SMEs, first time buyers, stalled construction projects, social tenants to buy their houses, commuters by holding down fare rises, infrastructure projects, and the building of more free schools. It would surely have been better to reduce corporation and personal taxes to encourage growth and to have stimulated the construction of infrastructure projects by proper tax and planning regimes. This is the kind of thing that would attract developers of e.g. the new Thames Estuary Airport. Osborne will be praised rightly for limiting pay increases in the civil service to 1% although to have cut back on the bloated numbers would have been much better for the economy. Cancellation of the January increase in fuel duty will be welcome but again fuel duty should be reduced and paid for by the cancellation of all the subsidies for wind farms and solar panels. A further tax increase on those travelling by air is though unfair. Osborne will be praised for reviewing the level of Overseas Aid and has at least been realistic on another green issue by saying that he will take action to help industry high energy users. If the euro collapses, which I understand foreign exchange brokers were considering almost inevitable last Friday, what will Osborne do then?  

The Taxpayers' Lament

There are so many ways in which taxpayers' money is misspent. Why are taxpayers paying at least £113million a year to trades unions? Why are the unions then allowed to use that money to fund the Labour party? Why is a strike allowed where less than 50% of the members of a trade union fail to take part in the strike ballot? Why do we have so many public servants? Of what possible use are they? Why are taxpayers paying so much to the EU? Why did Blair agree to a reduction in our rebate when he must have known that the CAP was never going to be reformed? Why do taxpayers have to support the BBC which mocks a good percentage of those who do by insulting not only their intelligence with sanctimonious rubbish but by feeding them a constant diet of left wing bias? Why are taxpayers being made to pay ridiculous sums of money to satisfy the whims of global warming claimants? Why are taxpayers being made to pay for grandiose overseas aid programmes? Why are we following a deficit reduction line which will cost taxpayers significant revenue when we could be reducing our exposure by following a more Icelandic path back to fiscal health? Why are we not reducing both jobs and pensions of the idle, pampered public sector? Why are we supporting the banks? Why are the nationalised banks not being split into bits and the bits sold to the public in order to encourage more competition? Why not reduce stamp duty or abolish it altogether? Why not reduce VAT, both the 40% and the 50% tax rates and corporation tax? Why not introduce real competition in the NHS by splitting it up and selling off the bits?

Double Dip?

It is clearly going to be a cliff hanger as we wait and see whether the OECD is right about the UK sliding back into recession in the early part of next year. Is there enough time to avert a return to recession? What can the government do? From reports in the press it seems that the government is not going to make further cuts but instead is going to increase its borrowing and use the money to fund things like more school building. The reports go on to suggest that the government will pay for the cost of the loans by raising taxes through another form of bank levy. One only hopes that enough banks remain solvent to be able to pay for the new levy since it is clear that the euro is going to implode of its own absurdities and bring a number of banks including French and Germans ones. The reports of what the government is intending doing seem like a gambler's last throw of the dice. If the gamble pays off that's fine but if it doesn't then there will have to be cuts and probably cuts of a magnitude that we would not have had to contemplate if the cutting had been done earlier. The cuts will not spare us from tax hikes either. All of which will slow down our exit from these straightened times.

To the Good Guys - Shapps, Lawson and Turnbull

The BBC really is outrageous. John Humphrys shows his true patronising, pink, self important, sanctimonious, self in his interview of Grant Shapps this morning on Today. You can listen to the interview here. John Humphrys is a journalist and as such has the obligation to be accurate in his statements. He also works for the BBC and is thus obliged to be impartial. Why would it have been Shapps's staff who made a cock up over the previously requested interview? Why could it not have been the fault of the BBC staff? As in any organisation they are bound to have snafus and for Humphrys to pretend otherwise is, well, arrogance of a BBC kind. I object to having to pay money to an organisation which fails to honour its obligations for impartiality and is against virtually everything I stand for.  The government really has to do something with the BBC. Either they should break it up and sell off the bits or they should split it into two parts with the vast majority of left of centre types running one half and right of centre types running the other half with each side being allowed to be as partial as they want to be. We could then have plurality of presentation not only on political issues but also on issues like climate change which the BBC for some reason believes it is bound to present as if there was no argument against the findings of the IPCC and other like minded organisations. The blog Bishop Hill is publicising here more leaked emails in what is known as Climategate which as far as I'm concerned proves even more that this climate change drama is a drama in the sense only that it is misrepresented by those who should know better, including the BBC. Whilst we are on the subject of climate change there is a wonderful open letter  here from Lords Lawson and Turnbull to that prat Chris Huhne setting him and his idiotic, dangerous and totally unaffordable policy to rights. You can feel the venom as each point made by My Lords sinks home.      

Paper Money Collapse

The Adam Smith Institute has a video on its blog here of a talk given by Detlev Schilichter about his latest book called Paper Money Collapse. It is a pity that about 41 minutes in the video repeats an earlier part of the talk. The first thing that struck me was how well he spoke English and the second how likely it is that his theory will come to pass. Detlev (it's shorter than Schilichter and easier to type) traced the history of paper money systems and how they all collapsed or would have done in the case of some if they had not been withdrawn. Detlev believes that we are at the end game as far as the present paper money phase is concerned. He wishes the government would voluntarily replace its paper money with gold but doubts that the government will do so. By not doing so a point will be reached he believes where people will refuse to deal in paper money anymore because through quantitative easing and easy credit it will cease to have any value at all. The consequences of paper money collapse will be devastating and worse by far than the boom and busts we have seen so far. Paper money allows governments to print more at very little cost particularly now as the greater part of it is generated electronically. Governments do this to encourage a boom but whereas booms occurred less often and the consequent recessions were shallower, booms now occur more frequently and the recessions become deeper. Mrs Merkel is right not to allow the ECB to indulge in quantitative easing but the euro will collapse anyway.    

German Bonds

Germany failed to sell all of its 10 year bonds up for sale today. It seems potential investors held back because of the low rate of return and their nervousness that Germany will start to underwrite the debt of the eurozone's weaker states. Germany's borrowing rates are about to increase making it more expensive to operate. This in turn will have an adverse effect on the rest of the eurozone if it is thought Germany is a greater risk than it was before the euro crisis. Roubini is reported as saying that there is at least a 50% chance of the eurozone breaking up in 3 years. A second rating agency, Fitch, is saying that France is in danger of losing its triple A rating status as the euro crisis is likely to generate liabilities which will spill onto its balance sheet which due to the increase in its debts France does not have sufficient capacity to absorb. Despite the failure of the US Congressional Super Committee to find an agreed solution to cope with the US deficit America is still able to attract buyers for its bond issues at great prices. As the world's reserve currency the US dollar is still sought after as a refuge in times of crisis particularly when it appears that China's economy is slowing down with manufacturing activity reported to have dropped to a thirty two month low this month. It will be great if our bonds continue to be bought at such prices we have achieved to date but unless the government cuts back the deficit it won't be long before our bonds fall out of favour.  

Bad Ideas and Hopeless Dreams

Is this the nightmare moment when we will be able to look back later and say that this was when Cameron and Osborne finally decided to follow Keynes completely? All we hear are about taxpayer backed initiatives such as the first time buyer support scheme, the credit easing idea and the rail building and other government capital projects. What is going on in the world and in particular in the eurozone is threatening our recovery so we should be cutting back on all government expenditure and indeed our borrowing instead of doing the reverse. In that way we will be in better shape to withstand the ravages of the economic turmoil that are going to hit us when the euro collapses. Better to have done something to try and fix the roof before the hurricane hits than in the middle of it. What is it about governments that makes them live in cloud cuckoo land? It is all very well saying that times are tricky (and one must commend Cameron for that) but it is gutless then to pursue policies which our government must know are almost certainly going to cost the taxpayer significantly more than the taxpayer is already responsible for. It is not up to Tory governments to gamble with our taxes. That is something we can rely on Labour doing and losing every time they get elected to office. As far as what can be cut it is quite obvious that the  wind farm policy is a candidate for a start and a good second would be a cull of the civil service. Of course withdrawing from the EU would save us time and money and reduce the regulatory burden on us all. The growth we need will not occur as a result of taxpayer funded projects which just make the taxpayer poorer. Growth will come though by the government allowing the private sector the greatest possible latitude to do what it does best and that means lowering taxes and abolishing regulation to ensure that profits can be made that are commensurate to the risk. Private capital in Victorian times built the railways on that basis so why can't private capital build Boris Johnson's airport in the Thames? The think tank Reform says we are in for 10 years of austerity but the government should be doing all it can to encourage the private sector to take wing and thus perhaps reduce that timescale. The rumours about Osborne's Autumn Statement are not hopeful although I live to be pleasantly surprised.      

Knitting, iPhones and Saif Gaddafi

I understand that knitting is back in fashion, boosted so it is said by the home knitted jumpers worn by the star of the original Danish series 1 of 'The Killing'. I saw the American version of series 1 but will be watching the Danish series 2 which starts on TV this evening. I hope it doesn't lose its way as did the American series 1 at the end. I do not recall which mobile 'phones were used in the American series 1 but if they were iPhones I trust that their batteries did not become un-rechargeable like the battery in my iPhone 3G which died completely this morning. Thanks though to the impressive way Apple's does things I have today been able to book a time at the Genius Bar for Monday afternoon. I wonder what kind of mobile 'phone Saif Gaddafi had whilst on the run. He will have needed it to discuss his possible surrender to the International Criminal Court but perhaps it gave his presence away to the forces of the National Transitional Council. He will presumably have kept his mobile charged using a car cigarette lighter adapter as I imagine it is difficult to find an electric source in the desert. After his capture Saif Gaddafi was photographed looking somewhat forlorn in full arab prince type robes. He was apparently in an aeroplane taking him to a prison somewhere. One almost felt sorry for him but his captors must feel elated that they have now scooped the last Gaddafi of any importance. I hope one day he writes his memoirs and describes in the greatest detail all the shenanigans that went on not only with the Lockerbie bombing and the subsequent deal done for the return of Al-Megrahi but also in relation to the deals done with Blair, Brown, Mandelson, the Milibands and the LSE.        

What's Wrong With Being a Party Pooper

At least Cameron escaped being photographed feeding carrots to Mrs Merkel unlike FCO minister Jeremy Browne (feeding carrots to a Panda not Mrs Merkel). Cameron's conversation with Mrs Merkel must though have had a sense of deja vu about it since both knew beforehand exactly what the other was going to say. So what was the point of the meeting? Merely to show that despite the differences between the countries they can still talk politely to each other? There is I suppose some merit in that. Did Cameron get an impression that the Germans are bluffing about not letting the ECB print money and become the lender of last resort in the eurozone as has been suggested by some like Charles Crawford here? I suspect not although Simon Miller seems to be suggesting in his blog in The Commentator here that Germany is already aware that the ECB is involved in some debt transfer. Whatever Germany's position it is frightening that some experts are beginning to suspect that the euro crisis could now last into 2013 - read for example Philip Aldrick's article in the Telegraph here. Whatever happens the blame will be landed at our door. Correction, is already being landed at our door because we harbour the dreadful speculators within our bosom in the City of London. Jeremy Warner has an interesting piece on this here. There always has to be someone to blame and Nigel Farage blames Barroso, van Rompuy and their ilk as can be seen here. I have to say that I'm with Farage on this. At some point the EU will want to impose a new government on us and Quentin Letts in the Daily Mail gives us an idea of who might make up that government here.    

Socialism and Why It Doesn't Work

There is a great blog from Daniel Mitchell on the Commentator about socialism here of the kind beloved by Ed Miliband and Co and by the Lib Dems. The 50% tax rate is a classic example of the kind of thing Mitchell is talking about and as so many have said must be abandoned as soon as possible. It is good to see that some of the new intake of Tory MPs get the point about lower taxes as can be seen here. Osborne really must come up with something quite significant in his autumn statement to ensure that we are as fully protected as we can be against the slow burning disaster that is the eurozone. As Karen Bradley says he must at least reduce business taxes. He must also ignore the Lib Dems and the EU by encouraging employment by reducing the minimum wage for under 25s and making it less costly to dismiss those who would be dismissed save that it is too costly to do so like a teacher at a school where one of my daughters also teaches who fails to comply with the way he is supposed to work, fails to mark homework, who constantly takes days off and is otherwise an unreliable teacher. The hoops that have to be gone through are unbelievable and take both time and money to carry out. These are things that the opposition should be pushing but sadly they are not up to the mark. Ed Miliband's current mantra that the government seems to be out of touch just doesn't wash and in my view is counterproductive since every time I hear him say it it seems to me that the one who is out of touch is him. How lucky the government are to have such a hopeless opposition.         

Let's Help France and Germany

It is becoming quite clear that both France and Germany want Britain to clarify its position over the EU. I agree with them. We either have to be in or out as I have boringly said many times already. In my view as you know we should leave as it is not the kind of free market or democratic institution that we can be a member of. What makes me think this ? Why the comments this week of Mrs Merkel and her close CDU ally Volker Kauder. Mrs Merkel said earlier this week "The task of our generation is to complete economic and monetary union and build political union in Europe, step by step. That does not mean less Europe, it means more Europe." More Europe is not something we can stomach - there is too much Europe already. Mr Kauder said yesterday "I can understand the British don't want the financial transaction tax when they generate almost 30% of their GDP from financial market business. But Britain also carries responsibility for making Europe a success." That's just it we should not be impoverished in the way the Germans have impoverished this Latin members of the eurozone for their own selfish benefit. He then went on to say "All of a sudden, Europe is speaking German. Not as a language but in acceptance of the instruments for which Mrs Merkel has fought so hard." Such language is very hard to swallow. Germany may have its memories of the horrors of hyper inflation but we have our memories of the the horrors of war. The French are not that much better. Le Monde in a leader written yesterday said that "London chose not to be part of the eurozone but now demands to participate in its decisions." Le Monde is supposed to be a newspaper for intellectuals albeit of the left but if it cannot understand that we have an interest in decisions taken in the eurozone group if they were to affect us it makes Le Monde look a little stupid. The newspaper goes on to state "Britain's eternal ambiguity undermines Europe day by day." That is another strange thing to say in light of Britain's disproportionate contribution to the EU budget.  I'm sure though they would all be much better off without us. If we did leave would our exports suffer? Our exports to the EU are said to amount to 40% whereas our imports are significantly higher so it is reasonable to assume that the EU would not wish to upset us too much as they would have more to lose than we would if trading between the EU and ourselves came to an end. Further more the 40% figure is in reality much less than that since goods we export to Rotterdam/Antwerp are considered exports to the EU whereas a good proportion of that traffic only goes there in transit to other countries in the world.    

Can Cameron be like Maggie?

Comparisons are being made between Maggie and Cameron with Maggie seen as someone who had a definite idea about where she wanted to take the country (i.e. out of the gentle decline into oblivion which we were told by her predecessors of left and right was inevitable) but with Cameron seen as someone who wants to carry out policies which are more or less uncontroversial as he likes to be liked. The view of Cameron from abroad as expressed to me by one or two continentals is of a lightweight. Take the EU for example. Cameron says he is a eurosceptic but is he? It is abundantly clear that the founders of the EU  always saw it ending up as a sovereign state - the United States of Europe - and would get there by hook or by crook, mostly by crook as far as most of us in this country can see. You can have treaties with an independent state but you can't be half in and half out of one. The only reasonable stance you can take is to leave the EU and to have an arrangement with it similar to the one Switzerland has. Cameron can utter platitudes about repatriating powers as he did at the Mansion House yesterday evening but it is clear that Merkel has a completely different agenda in mind which again makes it more than likely that we will have to leave the EU. There are of course advantages in leaving the EU including not having to make any payments or following the ridiculous climate change dictats and other crazy regulations, straight bananas and the like. If Cameron wants to be a great Prime Minister he needs to be a little bit more like Maggie and have a real idea about where he wants this country to be in ten years time.      

Spaghetti Democracy

With the merest fig leaf of democratic cover Monti, appointed a Senator for life just a day or so ago and thus now at least a member of Italy's upper house, is putting a government together the cabinet of which we are told will have only twelve members all of whom will be technocrats of one kind or another. Not one of them including Monti will have been elected. Can you see this being accepted here? I can't as I think there would be fighting in the streets if there was even a hint of this happening here particularly if it were known as it is known in Italy that the eurocrats had connived with Italian civil servants to make sure Berlusconi was forced to go. The Italian socialist party is no doubt all in favour of what has happened as the one thing they wanted above everything else was to get rid of Berlusconi. They tried to beat him in general elections and failed. They tried through prosecutions on various specious charges and failed so they had to encourage his resignation by undemocratic means. This will rebound on them at some future point as Berlusconi may well bounce back at the next general election whenever it is called. The Italian socialists and others want the next election delayed until 2013 but Berlusconi's party want it called early next year. You can see why since Monti is now about to introduce additional measures to those austerity ones approved by the Italian Parliament on Saturday some of which Monti measures may well be more controversial than the Berlusconi ones. Although I believe the markets started off better this morning following Berlusconi's departure they fell back later when Italian bond yields climbed again. So much for the Monti factor.      

When will Germany Make its Mind Up?

Liam Halligan in his article today in the Telegraph, which you can read here, claims that the unavoidable truth is that Germany is in command of the eurozone. That indeed must be since Germany is the only country in the eurozone with a strong economy of any significant size in the world. I thus agree with Halligan that it is up to Germany to decide how the euro crisis can be solved. Should it allow the ECB to carry out a quantitative easing programme or should it allow the eurozone to expel certain of its members like Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and eventually Italy? I think Halligan ignores another alternative which is that Germany and the other northern eurozone members exit the euro and set up their own monetary union leaving France and all the other members in situ in the original eurozone. Certainly from a British perspective it is better for France and Germany to be in separate monetary unions and indeed better for every other country in europe as the last thing we and the other countries need is a French and German hegemony dominating the rest of us. If this split were to happen the euro led by the French would devalue and help Greece and co to recover. This outcome should be one which Cameron and his henchmen should be pushing hard to achieve since it is absolutely clear that unless they become mad the Germans are not going to allow the ECB to undertake any quantitative easing at any time. The UK should be spending all its waking hours trying to persuade Mrs Merkel to adopt this solution and trying to get not only the EU non members of the eurozone to join in but the US as well. France will be the problem but if as is being said S&P's downgrading of France's rating was not a mistake and was only reinstated due to political influence perhaps the threat of being downgraded again will help France to change its mind and agree to the logic of the split of the eurozone into two parts. The other advantage for France in agreeing to this split would be that its banks would be saved from the huge losses they would otherwise suffer on Italian debt.

The EU looks in the Mirror and sees Syria

Daniel Hannan poses the question 'Who speaks for the majority in Europe' in his blog today here. A good question particularly as it is quite clear that the EU bureaucracy or technocracy, or whatever it is they are known as, obviously don't as can be seen in this blog in The Commentator here. The lack of respect for  democracy by the leaders of the EU, although perhaps not all that surprising since the continentals have always had more in common with French dirigiste principles than our anglo saxon ways, will end in disaster in the long run with people rebelling against their so called masters. There will be a kind of European Spring probably equally as bloody as the Arab Spring. The Arab Spring became the Arab Summer and lingers on into Autumn with the unresolved rebellion in countries like Syria and Yemen. There is no European equivalent to the Arab League so will it be the UN who suspends the EU for continuing to kill its citizens contrary to promises by the EU to cease its violence in the same way as the Arab League has suspended Syria for failing to end violence against its citizens contrary to the promises made by Syria a few days ago? Until Merkel, Sarkozy and the faceless eurocrats and now van Rompuy insisted that Italy and Greece forego democracy I did not think the EU was a force for evil but so it has now revealed itself to be. Hysterical? I hope so but fear not. We must leave this institution now before it is too late and urge other EU countries like us to do the same.

Disappointment

One of the joys of being alive when Maggie won the first of her general elections in 1979 is that you knew she had every intention of fulfilling her mandate. In many ways she was even better than one could have hoped for with her greatest claim to fame being the reverse of Britain's decline into senility connived at by previous governments of left and right. Maggie did not accept the argument that you could not change anything as it would upset people if you carried out your beliefs. She went ahead and did those things which needed doing to get us back to a 'can do' society. Maggie believed in Hayekian economic policies, deregulation and flexible labour markets. Her beliefs are worth reviving since (a) the soggy economics we live by are not going to be robust enough to allow us too weather the euro storm that is coming our way, (b) the EU is wrapping us up in so much regulation it's stifling us and costing us a bomb and (c) the effect of the latest employment regulations is like putting another nail in the coffin of flexible labour markets. Despite Hague's so called euroscepticism the Foreign Office is still in thrall to the EU. This is ridiculous. We need civil servants who are not only trenchantly for Britain as a sovereign state but whose sole interest is in fighting for Britain's interests. All we seem to get from Cameron, Osborne and Hague (I exclude Clegg - we know he is an EU useful idiot) is a wishy washy kind of approach. They give me the strong impression that they do not want to rock the boat for fear of upsetting the the Germans and the French. To hell with the Germans and the French. They will fight their own battles without any care in the world for us and we must fight our corner too. Cameron should have been rude to that low flying frog Sarkozy for snubbing him. Who does Sarkozy think he is? As for Angela Merkel what precisely do we owe her? Nothing. Cameron should have slapped her down for her impertinence in threatening us over the treat changes she wants. It is so disappointing to find Cameron, Osborne and Hague as pusillanimous as Blair. Do they have no real beliefs, no real passion for doing the right thing for Britain?  

Depressing Times

According to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard here Germany either has to leave the European Monetary Union (EMU) or agree to a reflationary policy in the eurozone. I do not think Germany will do either or if it does, only when it finds itself standing on the brink of its own downfall. As usual throughout the whole of this crisis the eurozone has done too little too late and imposed policies that will result in grinding poverty for years in those countries which should never have been in the euro in the first place. Bruno Waterfield argues here in one of the most depressing articles I've read in a long time that Germany will not leave the EMU as over 60% of its exports are to EU countries. Germany has certainly also used the 'credit fuelled market in southern Europe' generated by the euro in which to sell its goods to its advantage.  Waterfield maintains though that Germany is not the powerhouse we all imagine it to be and that it has hidden behind a credit bubble to avoid restructuring its economy. Waterfield is also convinced that the rivalry between France and Germany over who controls the eurozone and the EU is becoming a problem. Everything I read and hear screams at me that we have to leave the EU post haste in order to save ourselves from either being run by the French or the Germans. I know there are some who believe we might as well side with the Germans as we have been run by them since George 1 was invited to become our king but that misses the point that for many years prior to George 1 and subsequently our kings have only ruled us with our consent. If we do leave the EU we, like the rest of the world, would not escape the horrors awaiting us as a result of the inevitable messy collapse of the euro but at least we would have greater flexibility by being on our own than we have now subject as we are to suffocating EU regulation. I do hope the government is looking at exit scenarios even if exit is not their favoured course. It would be prudent to be prepared.

Osborne, Nighy, Regrave, Grant and Merkel

I remember going to a CPS talk given by George Osborne within a month or so of him being appointed Shadow Chancellor and being rather impressed by his obvious grasp of his brief, his delivery and the manner in which he dealt with a considerable number of questions, most of which were searching. For a 33 year old as he was then he demonstrated a remarkably cool head. I was impressed again today when I saw the video of his performance at the meeting of EU finance ministers yesterday and which you can see here. He was not only polite, respectful and explained his point well he none the less made it apparent that this country does not support the financial transaction tax so beloved of Bill Nighy. Why is it actors think their views are of the slightest interest to the rest of us. By involving themselves in politics on the fringe I think they do themselves a disservice as to me they break the spell around their future performances as it becomes difficult not to think of their political statements when one next sees them perform. I fail to see only the character they are portraying. Watching Corin Redgrave was always particularly off putting knowing his somewhat extreme politics. Indeed watching Hugh Grant's antics gives me a similar problem. Going back to Osborne it was a pleasure for once to see one of our ministers battling well for Britain. He has restored some of the trust that had been lost by the way the government mishandled the referendum vote in Parliament. We just have to hope they will battle equally as well for us when it comes to negotiating our relationship with the EU which I suspect will come sooner rather than later as a result of Merkel's comments about the EU treaty needing some adjustments to ensure ever closer union. I imagine she was talking more of the euro than the EU. As to the euro everyone seems to agree that it was badly put together and yet it is incomprehensible that many want it to survive in one form or another when it is self evident that the best course would be for it to be abandoned in an orderly fashion and recast in a way that makes sense - for those that want to join it. But no we are told that would be too dangerous and more costly. I do not agree since the austerity programme being imposed on the PIIGS will lead to civil unrest. We all know the dangers of civil unrest and the opportunities that gives to extremists.

Berlusconi becomes Sarkozy

We shall miss Berlusconi has he leaves the stage from which he has amused us one way or another for 16 years. Berlusconi has not been Prime Minister all that time it's true but he's rarely been out of the spotlight for long during that period. As the Commentator says here we will have to make do as Sarkozy as Berlusconi's replacement as the joke of Europe. A role he will no doubt fill perfectly especially in light of his remarks about Netanyahu. It is incredible though that the unelected EU elite can virtually dictate who shall lead an EU country rather than the electorate of that country. The time has now come for some leadership on this whole EU issue from our government. I would like to hear not only their views on the consequences of Greece and others leaving the euro but also the thoughts of those who have a different view. I would like to know that the government has seriously reviewed the opinions of those with different views. I would also like to know that the government has looked at the consequences of leaving the EU and the opinions of those who have different views of what leaving would be. I remain to be convinced that the collapse of the eurozone will be worse than the continuing malaise in other than the very short term or that it will lead to contagion or to the end of the EU. I am convinced that the EU elite meddling in the affairs of EU countries will sooner or later lead to real conflict amongst the EU members and yes the dissolution of the EU as we know it. Better that we have either already left or have changed the EU so that becomes more like our original idea of the Common Market.  

Screw the Germans and the French - Screw Charlemagne

The G20 meeting was a disastrous damp squib for the euro since the only conclusion that anyone can come too is that no one amongst our 'masters'  and their servants has a clue how to resolve the euro problem or if they do the ability to persuade everyone else to support their solution.  There is of course a way out which is to leave the EU and thus the euro. The Lisbon Treaty permits this. This is apparently something that is being contemplated for Italy by at least one minister in the Berlusconi government albeit one who is a member of the other main party in the coalition, the Northern League. Italy is unlike like Greece and is perfectly capable of surviving outside the euro without help from the IMF or indeed the EFSF. After all Italy has a better debt to GDP ratio than the USA, Japan, the Netherlands, the UK and France. Merkel and Sarkozy are nonetheless trying to impose a strait jacket on countries that should never have joined the euro in the first place as they must well know but were allowed in on the basis that it was good for Germany and France (although it is difficult to see why France thought it would be beneficial to have Greece in the euro). That being so if, particularly, Germany wants to rescue the euro it should pay the price or allow an orderly exit for Greece and the other countries who cannot and never could live with the German economic model. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has a most interesting article about this in today's Telegraph here. The reason why Germany and France are so concerned to impose austerity on the Greeks and no doubt on the Italians as well is clearly set out in Daniel Hannan's blog here. The Germans and French should be told to get lost. Far from acting in any community spirit they are acting solely in their own self interest.     

Barak the Brave

It was good to hear Ehud Barak on the Andrew Marr programme this morning defending Israeli house building. I had forgotten in how many 'battles' Barak had participated during his time as a soldier. It was a pity though that he was given insufficient time to develop his argument. Was this BBC bias, an incompetent interviewer or an incompetent producer? I would have liked Barak to be asked to confirm, as we never seem to be allowed to be told this, that the house building is all on land owned by the Israelis which was bought fair and square from the Palestinians. If the Palestinians want to stop the building of Jewish settlements why don't they refuse to sell their land? They cannot have their cake and eat it. They do of course expect this, encouraged as they are by anti Israelis including Obama, the BBC and other useful idiots including it has to be said the British government. Apart from a brief discourse on house building the other subject Barak was asked about was Iran and its nuclear programme. Again the time allotted for this subject was risibly short made worse by the interviewer making an asinine statement about hoping Barak would tell the British government beforehand if Israel were going to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities this week. It can only be hoped that the danger we face from Iran will be fully aired once the IAEA report is published this week. What has been given a good airing in one Newspaper at least is the situation in Syria. Andrew Gilligan wrote in the Telegraph last Sunday about his interview with Assad and today writes an article here about Syria reaching a tipping point. It seems the Telegraph is currently the first Western newspaper to be allowed access to Syria.    

A Slow News Day

There are very few new stories around today which probably means that either the media have had a glut of stories on the same subject or that so far there is no news anyone wants to share with us. There is of course the story of Iran and its race to build nuclear weapons and the story of the cynical acceptance by the Assad regime in Syria of the Arab League peace deal. Two huge stories in themselves which have had little coverage as a result of the focus on the G20 conference and the euro crisis. It makes me laugh to read that the Deputy Prime Minister of Syria Mr Ammura says that it is the 'responsibility of any government to protect its citizens from armed groups'. As far as we can see the only armed groups are the Syrian police or army attacking unarmed civilians who demand an end to the Assad reign. Mr Ammura is reported as saying detainees were going to be released on Friday or today and that they were working hard to abide by all aspects of the peace deal so long as there is a cessation of violence from any source.   Why do regimes which come to power at the point of a sword always represent themselves as the legitimate government? Who do they think they are kidding when we know that they are murderous despots, and as in the case of Assad pretending to be regular suburban blokes uninterested in anything other than their fellow countrymen, their families and earning their meagre salaries when they and their henchmen are stashing as much loot as possible away in Swiss bank accounts. The leaders of the regime in Iran, including the religious ones, are just the same. They are a bunch of ruthless greedy thieves and it is extraordinary that we deem it right to recognise these people. Look at Gaddafi and where dealing with him got us.          

Unions and Pensions

Just who do the public sector Trades Unions thunk they are? The saviours of the economy? Those who can be relied on to save money for the rest of us? Those who can be relied upon to invest, set up businesses and otherwise to expand our GDP? So why is it that the public sector Unions can as a result of a vote of less than 50% of their members disrupt the rest of us for the sake of their pensions when their hero Gordon Brown completely buggered the pensions of those of us in the private sector not only once by taxing dividends paid into the pension funds but secondly by his criminal mismanagement of our economy. When those of us buy annuities with our pension pots the amount we will receive will be about a third of what we would have received say 5 years ago unless prior to our enforced purchase of annuities the base rate goes up. We may not like it but we accept it. Public Sector pensions cost us £32 billion a year today and will continue to rise inexorably. The deal offered to the public sector Unions is by any stretch of the imagination generous to a fault. No changes will affect those 10 years or less from retirement and current employees will continue to enjoy final salary pensions. Furthermore accrual rates have been improved thus improving pension benefits.   Public Sector pensions will be up to 20 times better than private sector ones. All the public sector has to do is to accept something the private sector has already accepted - to work longer and to contribute 3% of their salaries to their pension pot. So how dare the Unions take strike action. The time has surely arrived when no strike can be called unless a majority of at least 50% of the Union has voted in favour of strike action. The time has long since passed when payments to the Unions for any reason can be funded by taxpayers. This was a scandalous notion brought in by Blair to make the taxpayer fund the Labour party since money paid by the Unions to the Labour party was replaced by subventions from the taxpayer to the Unions.