Greek Posturing

Greece is said to be on the brink of falling out of the euro but who will push it over. Not the Greeks who think, or rather some of their politicians do, that no one, including the Germans, will dare push them out since the ECB and the rest of the eurozone fear the consequences of contagion. It is not certain that if Greece goes the markets will then turn on Spain, Portugal, Italy and even France. It is certain that Greece is taking a huge risk but on the other hand what has Greece got to lose. The bail out it has received has mostly not gone to support Greece but the banks which bought Greek debt instead and which are in deadly trouble as a result. One has to sympathises to a certain extent with the Greek attitude to the austerity measures which are a condition of being bailed out. Since Greece is not receiving most of the bail out money why should it have to accept measures that have given rise to high and dangerous levels of unemployment and a contracting economy. We shall learn soon enough whether Greece's gamble comes off. Based on what has already happened I think the Greeks are right in their assessment that the last thing the eurozone wants is for Greece to fall over despite German comments that the eurozone can handle Greece's exit. I think the terms of the Greek bailout will be softened, Greece will get its bail out money and stay in the euro until the euro and all who are on it run out of road.