Thursday, 12 April 2012
Is Spain Brave?
For some time now I have been disappointed, to say the least, that no one of any standing or weight in a euro country suffering from long term recession as a result of the austerity measures imposed on it by Germany has even raised the need for devaluation to allow, like Iceland, their economy to rebalance. This at long last is now being discussed in Spain as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reported in his blog yesterday and that you can read here. The measures to try and save the euro are not as we know dealing with the inherent weakness in its structure and the austerity measures being imposed on countries like Greece are never going to produce the outcome everyone wants to see - at least not in several years by when of course Greece will be a mere husk of its former self. It will take just one brave country to decide that the cost of staying in the euro on the disastrous German terms is too great a burden to impose on its citizens. Once the floodgates have been breached by that brave country others will follow suit and sadly for the Germans there will be fewer customers for their cars and white goods as a consequence. One thing they have fought so hard to prevent. They have though been using the wrong weapons. If they wanted to preserve their European market, albeit in a weakened state, they should have left the eurozone with their likeminded colleagues such as the Netherlands and Finland and set up their own currency union. The euro would then have devalued allowing the remaining members to rebalance their economies. Sadly Germany did not do so and is now left with a disorderly bust up of the eurozone instead. This will result in a glut of cars and white goods it cannot sell - that is unless the Chinese are going to come to Germany's rescue by buying Germany's production. There is evidence that the Chinese are replacing those buyers from southern Europe who can no longer afford German cars but will they continue to do so if Germany is part of a monetary union whose currency is harder than the euro?
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