The French Presidential Election

Went to a talk yesterday at Chatham House at which a French journalist Dominique Moisi gave his view on who would win the Presidential Election now under way. He thought Hollande was bound to win not because Sarkozy had done a bad job but in small part because any incumbent is going to do badly in light of the current economic situation and because Sarkozy's party has been in office for 17 years but mainly because Sarkozy himself has demonstrated that he does not have the necessary Presidential superiority. Certainly Sarkozy has a sufficiently inflated idea of himself but apparently not of the kind that the French love. Sarkozy is more like a Bonaparte than a Louis XIV. If I interpret Moisi correctly it's as if Sarkozy makes his fellow countrymen cringe when acting Presidential like one did when a friend came home for dinner and in front of the parentals held his knife incorrectly. It only remains for the French to confound everyone and re-elect Sarkozy but I expect Moisi is right and we shall be mildly upset that the fragrant Carla is no longer on the scene. The talk was interesting as Moisi claimed that whereas France had primacy on other EU issues they were no longer equals with Germany on economic matters which made Germany the most important country in the EU. He averred that because of the euro crisis this had made Germany rather arrogant. Germany it is true is determined to do everything to ensure it has a surplus and will not accept that this inevitably means that many of its weaker trading partners are going to have a deficit and that to balance things up they are going to have to agree to some form of equalisation policy. We must not rely on the Germans doing the right thing but instead should take our own action to ensure we do not have a deficit. One way is to stop buying German goods. We must also leave the EU and get rid of all the red tape and expensive socialist claptrap that comes with being an EU member. From comments he made Moisi believes that we are already estranged from it anyway. The Germans won't sink as they will continue selling their cars to the Chinese and others around the world.