Sunday, 19 June 2011
Bring on the Greek Default
Virtually every pundit who is asked about the effects of Greece defaulting includes in their answer a statement that once Greece has fallen Portugal, Ireland and Spain will be picked off one by one by the market. Some of the loudest who maintain this domino effect is inevitable are the eurocrats. This claim by eurocrats invites suspicion, even scepticism. Why should Portugal, Ireland and Spain inevitably follow Greece's lead? Different circumstances apply in each country, for example in Greece tax avoidance is rife but this is not so in Ireland. Greece lied about its finances to be accepted into the eurozone whereas Ireland didn't. It must therefore be simplistic to say that where Greece leads the other Countries will follow. If the domino theory is wrong then why are the eurocrats pushing it so hard? Surely not to protect the ECB and the German and French banks which are so over invested in Greek bonds? Surely not to sucker the UK into assisting with the bail out for which it has no obligation to join? There does not seem to be another reason. The only way Greece can sort out its affairs is by defaulting, as it has done (we are told) countless times in the past, and leaving the euro. Those who over invested in Greece will suffer the consequences of their folly but one would hope that, like some of the British banks, eurozone banks having been quietly reducing their positions in Greek assets. There is a tremendous opportunity for the UK if Greece defaults and the ECB and French and German banks go bust. UK banks and other institutions will then be able to buy up French and German assets at rock bottom prices. Bring on the Greek default.
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