Friday, 10 February 2012

Greek Expulsion

Jeremy Warner in his blog here is saying that the eurozone is now trying to push Greece out. I agree with Warner because if the eurozone still wanted Greece to remain a euro group member it would not be fussed about the €325 million that the Greeks say they will not been able to cut when the bailout fund now being talked about is €130 billion. The change of heart has occurred not only because of the €325 million shortfall in austerity cuts but because Greece is not trusted to perform its obligations under the rescue package. It seems the Greeks are not confident they can do so either since as Warner points out the wealthy ones are moving their money out of Greece. There is also the worry that at the general election in April the mainline parties will do so badly that the extreme left parties will take over. Would the army allow Greece to be ruled by a government coalition of the hard left parties? I guess it's possible and equally possible that the army will mount a coup d'etat. Either way Greece will leave the eurozone and if there is a coup d'etat the EU as well. Depending which pundit you follow Greece leaving the euro will put pressure on Portugal, Spain and Italy and result in at least Portugal following suit, or not. Expelling Greece will be its saving though as they will then be able to devalue and slowly but surely over time be able to get back to a better economy, assuming that they stick with those essential austerity cuts such as reforming their civil service numbers, salaries, pensions, tax collections and the like. The tragedy will be that after Greece's exit the eurozone will continue without itself having addressed its basic flaw being the mixture of German type economies from Latin ones. How much more damage to the world's economy needs to be done before common sense prevails and Germany and its apostles leave the eurozone and set up their own monetary union leaving France to head up the eurozone rump. France's economy is likely to suffer badly if Hollande is elected President. I suppose Miliband is unlikely to join Hollande's campaign as he is being urged to do to counter Merkel's support for Sarkozy for fear that the disaster that is Hollande will reflect badly on him. A pity. It would have been good to see Miliband solving the Rubik Cube puzzle in French.    

No comments:

Post a Comment