Sunday, 13 November 2011
When will Germany Make its Mind Up?
Liam Halligan in his article today in the Telegraph, which you can read here, claims that the unavoidable truth is that Germany is in command of the eurozone. That indeed must be since Germany is the only country in the eurozone with a strong economy of any significant size in the world. I thus agree with Halligan that it is up to Germany to decide how the euro crisis can be solved. Should it allow the ECB to carry out a quantitative easing programme or should it allow the eurozone to expel certain of its members like Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and eventually Italy? I think Halligan ignores another alternative which is that Germany and the other northern eurozone members exit the euro and set up their own monetary union leaving France and all the other members in situ in the original eurozone. Certainly from a British perspective it is better for France and Germany to be in separate monetary unions and indeed better for every other country in europe as the last thing we and the other countries need is a French and German hegemony dominating the rest of us. If this split were to happen the euro led by the French would devalue and help Greece and co to recover. This outcome should be one which Cameron and his henchmen should be pushing hard to achieve since it is absolutely clear that unless they become mad the Germans are not going to allow the ECB to undertake any quantitative easing at any time. The UK should be spending all its waking hours trying to persuade Mrs Merkel to adopt this solution and trying to get not only the EU non members of the eurozone to join in but the US as well. France will be the problem but if as is being said S&P's downgrading of France's rating was not a mistake and was only reinstated due to political influence perhaps the threat of being downgraded again will help France to change its mind and agree to the logic of the split of the eurozone into two parts. The other advantage for France in agreeing to this split would be that its banks would be saved from the huge losses they would otherwise suffer on Italian debt.
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